大V信息速递

@AWar1776 Just culturally from what I’ve seen on X

Koreans are already fully liquidated from leverage by the time they see the thesis play out.

Chinese already sell the moment there’s a correction because they think institutions are harvesting them.

Japan is somehow calm that Kioxia and others have dropped a lot.

US tends to have more tolerance to volatility

@NullContex1s If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins).

And they’re a $8B MC…

Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins.

And that’s a $1B MC.

Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably.

Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble.

Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences:

I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest.

Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling.

And celebrating when everything AI from $MRVL to $NBIS to $INTC finally had a crash after a few hundred percent rally.

Think it’s mainly a lack of understanding of technological shifts mixed with capital preservation culture vs. growth.

@waynexonline $AAOI themselves gave a $471m / month estimate starting H2 2027.

If 800g gets revised up sharply across the board, that number might get hiked.

Thanks, love reading the comments!

Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations.

But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on:

- Much higher silicon photonics module volumes

- scale out, scale up, scale across volumes

- 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins

- increase in AI capex

This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since:

I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing.

Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too.

Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th.

Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings.

TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections.

Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal.

Seems like they saw how profitable

$SPCX $45B compute deal was.

But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework.

Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT

Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk?

“As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.”

(There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data)

Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.

My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.

In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.

I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that:

- “AI is a bubble”

- “memory/kospi is a bubble”

- “photonics is a bubble”

- “humanoids won’t get anywhere”

- “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta”

And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”.

But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts.

And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery.

I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out.

Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now.

Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

@johnoao CPO hasn’t scaled up yet. Lot of their earnings come from 2028 TAM for FAU.

There’s just a lot of uncertainty recently due to CPO delay reports and $GLW glass bridge. https://t.co/8kyWZ2x0Mw

@LetsGoBflo17 I actually like $IREN fundamentally post Mirantis acquisition. Since it combines software orchestration with their existing secured GW capacity.

But not hopping onboard personally unless they address executive stock based compensation and financing mechanics though.

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.

From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.

Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026?

Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA.

If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028.

Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet?

With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped?

I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals.

It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently.

Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage.

In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do.

Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time.

S

@pepemoonboy In Pepe we trust

@babybluecream Yeah, my $EWY longs crashed quite a bit.

I still think the operating income that SK Hynix and Samsung produces will catch up to the MC eventually, so I’m holding my memory positions.

Regardless, not a fun time to watch Asian markets from Nikkei to Taiwan to Kospi drop so much.

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY"

They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year.

- H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand".

- 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range."

In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E.

Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028".

Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE.

A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX

@blkslymn I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now.

A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%.

So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops.

But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.

@afasano23 Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago.

Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK.

This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing.

I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.

@CArgyres29810 I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint.

This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028.

$SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO.

And it's sitting at ~$1.1B now.

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others):

Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP):

Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly:

$205–307M of annual gross profit.

Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~:

3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028.

And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit)

Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024.

So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off.

I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM.

_

As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked.

Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript.

And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET an

@JClaydog I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE.

With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC.

With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM.

Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after.

Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed?

More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

@StockSavvyShay Hope someone at X can fix this if there's enough visibility.

Seems like a pretty critical bug.

I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug.

Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore. https://t.co/0MvdfJmBg3

@XtineFang @nikitabier X is doing everything they can so I lose my spot to Elon Musk!

@OpenAI This is the best way to get bullied in public https://t.co/tUzuYB3oxs

Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg.

This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May.

Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation? https://t.co/iFIY1WulvO

@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying.

Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI.

Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.

@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs.

Market: proceeds to sell off memory.

800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029?

Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.

@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess.

$AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.

$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information)

Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend.

But what if Apple joined the others after M&A?

A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout.

Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs.

Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure.

This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

@mmpatel101 Yeah that's the unfortunate reality of headline algorithm trading nowadays.

Sector tanks 20-50%+ off delay news, then causes cascading margin liquidations.

"Delay refuted" news comes out, people still cast doubts over it, and markets focus on misleading delay reports weeks later over fundamental growth opportunities.

@avshushka Just forwarding the Rosenblatt channel check on optical sector weakness:

https://t.co/IhWhCqjZsD

@meikozz_2026 I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher.

And this month seems like that time of year?

$POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics.

Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others.

Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural...

$META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections.

I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).

$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said:

"The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming"

As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed.

Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp.

Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines.

It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond.

In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce.

There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be:

1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market

2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share

3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share

Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM.

(source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).

@JJJJJ_66666 It's nuanced, $AEHR implications was more toward broader silicon photonics related ramp.

Which could include 800g/1.6T pluggables, or CPO.

If they directly named CPO, Msscorps would be a very clean readthrough. It just got hit really hard recently from that delay claim (even after $NVDA refuted it), since it's it's upside seems tied to CPO yields in specific.

So it's positive, just uncertain.

@RiversSmith3 Bro I just came out from surgery, unfortunately I'm not able to listen to $AEHR earnings call while bleeding out thx.

$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings!

2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer).

Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M.

- Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products.

- Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in.

- Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations.

From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future.

- Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND

Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think.

- "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems"

- Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional syst

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029.

Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier.

Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today.

Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT.

But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

@talethdabm89 Feels like algos often miss $SIVE, after slight $LITE / optical sector recovery after CPI print. Especially bc it's trading on some random Swedish exchange, but catches up on random days.

That being said it's definitely on institutional radar, especially since MS put it next to $LITE and $COHR as the three leading CPO laser companies yesterday.

Just waiting for things to play out, stocks don't move in a straight line up every day.

@cragents Don't really have any strong opinion on $IBM since don't know enough about all their revenue streams.

Was surprising to say the least seeing it drop 24.3% in a day tho after ER.

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI.

Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities.

Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e).

AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr.

The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier).

This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it.

Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.

@macromonster69 Original article is in a different language, used AI to translate it to English for the usual audience

So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently:

1. Jensen Huang said no delays:

- 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay.

- Debunked the rumor that the next-generation flagship, Rubin Ultra, would be delayed until 2028 and said it would be on track to ship next year

- Rack system optimizations, like replacing Kyber with a new design are architectural optimizations, not impacting delivery timelines.

2. On ASIC competition: no loss of market share.

- Talked about how a leading frontier lab that previously relied heavily on internal ASICs has shifted nearly 50% of its compute load to Nvidia

3. On over-reliance on hyperscalers.

- AI frontier labs currently contributing to ~20% of demand.

- Traditional cloud providers, Nvidia provides Vera CPUs and high-speed networking

- Sovereign AI

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways:

1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations"

Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE.

Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus.

2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including:

- Optical chips.

- Electrical chips.

- PCBs.

- Other module materials

From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then.

They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027.

Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though.

But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components).

3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the

@bottleneckceo 10 years from now, the flying spaghetti monster will descend from the heavens and bless every $INTC holder with a meatball.

Can someone prove me wrong?

$AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins.

Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers.

CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website.

So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:

- $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply

- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms

- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics,

- $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics foundry capacity

I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi.

But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO.

A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies…

If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers.

This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

Just a semi recap TLDR:

- $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term

- $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL.

- PCB supply shortages are projected to persist until 2028, and component shortages/price hikes are already forcing ODMs like Inventec to issue conservative H2 shipment

- DeepSeek and Zhipu are developing custom ASICs to bypass $NVDA (kinda expected by now).

- Anthropic has achieved a $30B ARR and is projected to hit >$1B in Q3 profit. Turns out these frontier labs are more profitable than people think.

- US admin pressured $AAPL to source from $INTC, in exchange for tariff exception. Kinda pressuring alignment away from TSM.

- $TSM plans a 30x expansion of its Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) capacity by 2028, growing from 500 to 25,000 wafers per month

- Hanmi Semiconductor is entering the CoWoS packaging equipment market

- $NVDA and NTT hosting a conference July 24th to discuss CPO strategies.

- 5x general NAND flash price hike this year, market size $489B by next year triggered by RAG/inference. Samsung and SK Hyn

Looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open for the 50th time this year per Trump.

I’m getting tired looking at macro. https://t.co/GuYgkwC2Q8

@softmaxedx My friend at $AMD tripped on a rock and had to spend a few hours at home.

So we’ll likely see a major delay at AMD’s entire GPU program.

@Traderissimo So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs.

As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production.

So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful here.

Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies.

Like $NVDA or $TSM.

By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed.

-> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged.

-> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them

-> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time.

Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.

So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month.

Just a summary:

IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers:

- Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs

- LG Energy (373220) / battery

- Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration

- Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators

As for humanoid volume ramps:

They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032.

Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps...

Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like:

- 15-20k 2028

- 40k-70k 2029

- 90k-140k for 2030

Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026.

In terms of competitive landscape they name:

- $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now)

- Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders.

- Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders.

They also did quite a lot of valuation modelin

@BtMIV6TSQ572728 This is half satire. It's hard to understand nuances when Grok is translating it.

@TheWaitingGameX I'm going to learn how to trade cash-settled Salmon futures next, so I can put it in my bio. https://t.co/oxJCHpb0Pd

@ANMcapital APR might be priced in.

But maybe salmon DNA processing might be a new bottleneck from the amount women use for face lotion...

Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is.

APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC.

Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face for better skin.

The world's female population creates a bigger structural demand than hyperscalers for memory or lasers? Should have known...

@sama Wow, gpt-5.6 sol is getting really good at writing these comebacks

@jaredisathome Strange everyone’s already taking allegations as a fact.

Looks credible, but companies file lawsuits all the time to slow down competitors.

@SpongeQuant He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves.

- Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent

- Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding

- Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their competing chip and funds Cerebras competitors for inference

- Works with $AAPL on Apple Intelligence? -> Create their competing devices.

- Potential lack of funding? -> Sign a lot of LTAs so the entire industry lives or dies off OpenAI succeeding.

Whatever he's doing is working lol.

Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL.

By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another.

It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.

@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO.

Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs.

In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%".

Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers.

The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise.

On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach.

Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis.

I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.

Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE:

"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.

"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."

Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity.

Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward.

I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.

@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though?

But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.

@2147gp Yep I'm very excited for the $SIVE US listing. Majority of people can't access it on small Swedish exchanges.

Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV!

It's now up an insane 16%.

I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday. https://t.co/Mmqdu0poVY

Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing.

Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases. https://t.co/vXmrncXQOm

@zhouyuan888 My guess is humanoids will be more widespread then cars. People see the "50k-100k+" BOM cost now and think humans can do better.

But it's about the future: I think both ubiquity/cost will end up like computers.

And technologically, we'll see humanoids outperform humans in most physical tasks from basketball to surgery, similar to how AI was able evolve to beat humans in almost everything academic.

So down the line, I think costs to make a humanoid at scale will keep getting compressed, optimized, and compressed down to <$5k over time.

While underlying technology improves to displace work over a longer term horizon.

Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027.

Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company.

- Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota

- Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes

- Highlanders x Mitsubishi

- Figure × BMW

- Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries)

- Optimus x Tesla (Internal)

- Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries)

Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer.

If they're not already vertically integrated by one already.

Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitree don't seem to care and work with a wide variety of auto players in China.

Curious how this trend plays out...

@stephengluck I blocked them since they're known for spreading disinformation.

Especially after it was exposed around their short seller activity, that there were marketing accounts telling people to sell. These accounts had histories of promoting the same Asian crypto launches.

- They spread defamation like saying I used AI to fabricate reports on CW laser LTAs from $AMD, despite the report coming directly from Trendforce.

Then they tried to hide references to the actual source after they were proven wrong.

- I didn't sell a good chunk of my $SIVE position, I own 1M+ shares (not USD) as one of the largest individual shareholders.

Don't see a reason to exit my position since I'm trying to own as much as possible before 1.6T pluggables and CPO architectural inflections hit.

Better not to give malicious accounts additional views.

@UNICONTSLA On the $AAOI chart, we're able to see the "Sleeping King" indicator.

You can see the crown form from the chopping patterns.

But once the king wakes up from their nap... chart fundamentals expect a royal decree. https://t.co/YQTSgpPMnR

The "Mythical Golden Egg Dragon Candle" predicted the $SIVE rally today.

If you look at the Golden Egg hatching indicator I drew, you can tell it predicts Sivers CEO buying on the open market a day later.

Do you guys think it's time I should sell courses on TA? https://t.co/LweBzWStuk

Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation.

After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo.

And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia.

Both of which caused the selloff in the first place...

So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed:

$LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029.

$SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers.

$TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void.

$AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed.

$IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared.

$AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared.

As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025.

Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026.

Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago.

Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals.

Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imagi

@NullContex1s It's nuanced, IMO:

- $TSLA has the clearest path to close the gap between US/China in mass production. But to get this done, majority of components seem sourced from China?

- $CCXI right now has a RoboFab for 10K+ units/year, and 75%+ of components sourced from the US.

So they're probably the leader in terms of Made in America supply chains + commercialization. But can't get to China scale yet through just US supply chains.

Figure is probably the other one with 12,000 target capacity, but can't comment much since their supply chain visibility isn't very public. I don't consider Hyundai/Boston Dynamics to be very American anymore so didn't include them.

"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly."

Elon's comment: "For now"

Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand.

Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here?

Both technologically with players like 1X and with mass production with $TSLA?

I'm am personally long on Agility through $CCXI targeting commercialization with Amazon and others.

But I'm proud to see American robotics as a whole go brrrr.

@shaaaawty_7 $SIVE US NASDAQ listing is more for:

- Fundraising (most important thing) to acquire IP + TAM expansion and make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did (eg. Cloud Light acquisition) from just selling lasers.

- Also it helps bridge valuation gaps, since I see it as undervalued relative to laser peers that are all in the tens of billions.

Rather than near term revenue/partnerships.

@JN9191 It's for NASDAQ dual listing to align themselves with US PCAOB standards.

Three new $SIVE insider purchases today.

Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today.

This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director.

Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence.

Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term.

Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).

@finkd Wow Zuck is both back on X and to the LLM race.

@Goodly2016 I just the algo gods just missed $SIVE after $LITE and the laser names pulled a recovery.

@KostasMoschovas Biggest surprise of the century.

Institutions probably bought all the retail margin liquidations recently.

Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published.

Showing AI ramping as usual:

- LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory

- LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics

- Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027.

- as much as $145B capex spend this year

“It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”

Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5.

That’s much more cost efficient as well…

Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth among US companies recently)

Never doubt Elon, maybe they might end up leapfrogging Anthropic + Mythos?

@starlightrvrie Yep still holding $AXTI. And a lot of my older thesis like $EWY that are up hundreds of percent.

Even if I don’t mention it as much anymore

@EdibleHazmat The project was in negotiations last year. Feels like more of implications since $META execution now is just a signal that they aren’t cutting capex from the Meta compute rumors

$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity.

So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex. https://t.co/0QgSls0s9o

@THEBONDINVESTO I currently hold shares in the million range, so not quite sure what’s with these accusations.

Since I believe $SIVE is one of the most important laser companies in the next optical shift… and has immense TAM expansion potential with IP acquisition.

Nasdaq listing is coming up… volume ramp is coming up… I think I’m fine and know what I’m holding

@MichaelMartocci Congrats, the SK Hynix + memory rise was goated.

Yeah, I think the ability to stomach volatility is what separates investors from the rest.

@kapo52277 @neruda_de Agility is ~$3.9B premoney valuation, which is compelling to me as is.

Not all SPACs work that way as seen with $BRUN, which is why I’m personally not waiting.

@neruda_de No, I’m personally trying to own as much % of Agility Robotics as possible right now.

Since I see Humanoids is as next major theme following space/AI.

Don’t think historical PTSD with bad SPAC names will sway me from owning one of the US humanoid leaders.

Let’s put it this way:

Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover.

And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes.

I see it as long term ownership over:

- the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4

- 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI

- leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers

- leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme

And so on… At cheaper valuations.

While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change.

NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes:

Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile)

But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit.

I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure.

If a thesi

@0xResurge Let's say you have a avocado farm that's valued at $45.

The avocado farm next to you gets bought for $130. And the avocado farm leader is valued at $2000.

It's just a signal that your avocado farm might be relatively undervalued or where the avocado farm might be priced in the future.

Not really fundamentals, it's just psychology around valuation anchoring.

@lucas_SPACs idk Spacemob hasn't been doing too well over the past year compared to bottleneck bros.

I think it's mainly just opportunity cost, even if I like $ASTS long term. https://t.co/UQZQcpXkN2

@Emre07465060084 For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines.

- $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables.

- $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more.

O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say.

Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources.

And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028.

How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is:

It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked).

For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out.

The main a

Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT.

Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring.

If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations. https://t.co/04W7phuIwr

@zjcwebster My prediction is we’re going to cut off trade with Belgium next.

There goes all the chocolates. https://t.co/y4CDTx5ZcT

@AlienMShroom Spain has lithium, tungsten, and other rare earths America needs.

That China happens to be export controlling…The US needs all the partners it can keep.

Trump: “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO.

They don't participate. They don't pay.

Cut off all trade with Spain”

Tbh no clue what’s going on anymore… https://t.co/F1n0m6gcPa

@QiIris96081 I mean I’m pretty confident memory and AI names recover just cause of the whopping amount of operating profit/growth they have.

I don’t think there’s anything fundamentally wrong, especially after the Samsung earnings.

Just a pretty wild deleveraging/margin cascade right now across the board with many things crashing 30-60% already.

Short term option traders and 2.5x margin bros were probably wiped.

@zephyr_z9 Koreans already fully liquidated a week in. https://t.co/DNIx7q2kW8

Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over”

“It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit.

Always an exciting time with markets. https://t.co/S3UisD75Kc

@jey0316 Basically:

> major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West.

> $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum

> optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue

Not sure if this news really matters given everything is crashing though.

Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors.

For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out.

Since there were warnings that:

Sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely, given Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29 (as evidence).

By second order effect, this is also bullish for upstream laser suppliers too like $LITE and $SIVE that are used in western lidar players.

@stocks4545 This is not the first time Bloomberg crashed the markets

https://t.co/C2pDgEAqOV

Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing:

Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power.

It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW, Google, $ORCL, and others."

Just dropped that in with the Meta Muse announcement, and evenn threw in the "expensive" framing with DCs to signal capex.

But little late given we're likely seeing a lot of margin liquidation cascades and heavy losses from media framing earlier.

@EidolonResearch Europe's too busy figuring out how to regulate air conditioners.

I don't think people considered them in the US/China humanoid race.

@stockshop199020 Literally just Elon.

- The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space.

- $TSLA led EV commercialization in US

He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again.

I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.

@WillD1373212821 Yes? If it weren't, it wouldn't be a national security threat.

Cybersecurity Committee Dpt of. Homeland Security:

"China's speed of advancement in humanoid robots is alarming, and the US government should formulate coordinated policies and strategies to counter Chinese firms' dominance".

Singling out Unitree Robotics.

How is the US so far behind?

Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year.

Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026...

Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to pour into upstream supply chains + rare earths.

Cause this disparity between US vs. China mass production is getting ridiculous...

But it almost feels like the start of Russia/US Space race Sputnik Moment for robotics?

@SBluelink Imagine every single time you post. You have a TA bro posting a chart about:

- b-but my $IREN ABC trend says it's going to $125 through the $6B ATM.

- or if something drops, someone quote posts you saying "Should have listened to my $40 paywalled XYZ charts"

Or if I post a new name they draw random swiggly lines any direction to convince people to sell, then try to sell a course on top of that that.

They end up wrong, but just silently ignores that fact when they draw a new swiggly line the next day to sell if they're right.

@EUlmsten wow the mythical golden egg dragon candle was spotted over the $SIVEF chart.

Something big is coming... https://t.co/V4CL41m5ax

@mao_ge_ge They could just trade on their own swiggly lines and make 10,000,000% returns if it were accurate.

This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip:

If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known...

If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart.

-> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where it heads. When it's primarily Samsung/SK Hynix and forward operating income growth from DRAM/NAND.

-> The swiggly drawing over $SIVE, $AEHR, and others mean nothing. When it's primarily hyperscaler suppliers, thematic premiums, and volume ramp orders determining valuations.

Then if something randomly goes from $1 to $60 like $AXTI, they claim they spotted it with their "Golden Egg Dragon Candle", while ignoring anything with InP substrate and otpical demand.

There's rare times like these where it's a massive sector drop all together.

But now the TA bros are showing up everywhere saying

here's a $40 course on how they predicted it with swiggly lines.

@WLinvestment This might be news to you, but swiggly lines on a chart is not fundamentals.

And has nothing to do with operating income growth that Samsung/Sk Hynix make https://t.co/lkXDuD9Xfg

@AlzayakMoh60610 I personally think so. It feels like markets started selling off after that misleading Bloomberg $META compute article, and a couple of SemiAnalysis bear posts on $NVDA supply chains.

Since algos + headline interpretation of “Meta excess compute” was cutting capex + dropping out of AI race.

Combine that with excess leverage and here we are. Probably just takes an earnings call and few Trump tweets to get back to normal…

But after some names already dropped 40-60% feels like it should bottom soon.

Reversals the other way are pretty violent too.

@FaceHonor $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops.

- You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers.

- NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters

- Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion.

And it's literally trading less than $POET for some reason. All while CW lasers are extremely bottlenecked to the point $LITE can't make enough.

Then they got a considerable amount of oversubscribed funding for fabless laser ramp recently.

Comfortable long for me, probably one of the stocks that way overshot selloff imo.

@jd_tradez Samsung: becomes most profitable company in the world today at a $1.3T valuation.

retail: "The AI trade is over"

Just putting it out there:

If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others...

Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far.

Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals.

Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”.

Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation.

No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves. https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”.

And a $800 PT, from $160. Giving SpaceX a ~$10T valuation.

No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail speak for itself. https://t.co/9pM7nnbuFT

Be Samsung at $1.24T:

> market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices

> proceeds to hikes dram by 20%

> releases earnings

> most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL

> operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y

market: sells off Samsung -7%

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off:

- $META compute news that’s not new

- CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA

- CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA

High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.

Trump: “You have a couple of guys who went short. Those poor ******* they’re in big trouble.

They’re being wiped out. The short guys.

I never liked short guys because they’re betting against the country”. https://t.co/6RW2KuzDoW

@platochi Yeah, $NBIS also had a painful like 5 months of chopping after they projected something crazy like $7B ARR by Q4 2026 earnings.

Makes you doubt sometimes

@TW_trades_ Was losing my mind over $RDDT's blowout quarter, just to see chopping for the longest time.

But glad it played out well.

Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200.

Reddit was doing:

- $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins

- $204M GAAP net income

- 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth.

- Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue

Felt very weird to see a profitable company get dragged down after earnings.

But in hindsight, given the increase hyperscaler capex, the drop felt more like it's more relative opportunity cost more than fundamentals?

Since a lot of inflow poured into $MU / Sk Hynix that are bottlenecked into 2029. Or with laser bottlenecks like $LITE that last into 2029 as well.

Same thing happens in reverse after selloffs ig, even if fundamentals didn't change.

Been seeing a lot of noise with memory optimization or Chinese players... but don't quite think you sign 16T+ LTAs if memory was getting flooded or not used anytime soon.

Same with optical players... if in earnings, they state anything they make gets bought, I don't quite think a lot of the noise has material effect on their fundamentals.

Regardless, nice to see some recovery with familiar faces like $HOOD, $HIMS, and $RDDT though.

@Trace_Cohen That's how the psychology behind private capital works a lot of times. Lead investors set an arbitrary valuation and everyone else swims in like goldfish.

Even if it's one ex-Anthropic with just a pitchdeck, they can just set a $1B+ valuation and still get funding.

If someone undervalues themselves, people get skeptical for some reason, rather than independently thinking it's an opportunity.

@amitisinvesting 1. I don't think they're in a dire need for financing.

My take is half geopolitical, half valuation scarcity as the first pure play humanoid player. The latter is likely more valuable than private funding in my view for momentum.

Unitree was going public in China and there's no pure play US humanoid exposure. SPAC structure is used for faster listing to give investors exposure, and they're both going public around the same timeframe.

Otherwise a ton of Western capital inflow would have went over to China if there's no US humanoid exposure.

I don't quite think it's coincidence in timing.

2. I'm citing last private valuations for Figure. I personally don't believe it's worth $39B.

But if it goes public, I do believe it would remain around that valuation in US markets, looking at what $SPCX did at $1.75T, just due to valuation anchoring psychology.

Even so, investors are still paying 4x+ NAV to access Figure with CEFs and I'm amused by the logic behind that.

I personally wouldn't assign it that value comparing it to Unitree at at $6B. (But I do think Unitree is undervaluing itself, probably ends up $12B+). But if you look at how $TSLA got their $1T+ valuation, a lot o

@ThematicTrader Clearly not true, capital inflow for humanoid + Physical AI is ATHs from VC data and $2.5B valuations are tiny for the leading US humanoid player.

My take is the SPAC structure is used for faster IPO, in terms of giving retail access to US humanoid companies.

Otherwise a lot of capital inflow would go to China with Unitree.

A lot of it is setting valuations low to gather more momentum + investor interest, not because they can’t raise more.

It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity.

Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs…

At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations.

Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization.

Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at.

Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure…

I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor.

Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals.

We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T.

Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?

@Frenchie_ Taiwanese local media is pretty furious lol

$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims:

“Our roadmap is intact”.

lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report” https://t.co/ijHggRm1fu

@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco Yep $NBIS early day drawdowns were insane.

There were short sellers bear posting Nebius and neocloud models left and right.

All of those seem to have vanished together lol

@blkslymn I have large concentration in $SIVE to $AAOI as well. Feels bad to suffer drawdowns from institutional photonics delay bear posts.

Just for the same firm to include it in their ETFs at the bottom.

NFA, but I’m especially confident about those two going forward despite the drop

@ak_dfranco I suffer major drawdowns too, especially if markets think my thesis is early.

But I’m very confident that AI chokepoints/bottlenecks names outperform and get validated in the long run. So happy to sit through the drops in the meantime.

Just sharing wins and losses along the way

I’d like to give a special thank you to Bloomberg’s piece on $META compute.

As well as the 2 back to back bear posts on CPO delays.

But I believe thematically photonics, memory, energy, and physical AI will outperform in the long run. https://t.co/vghsG5H2w5

Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today.

Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector. https://t.co/82tncsG3us

Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names.

Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”.

Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names:

Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”. https://t.co/lWDCl0Sxbe

@haybee940 Yep, we finally have the brain with OpenAi/Anthropic breakthroughs.

Now it’s time for robots (which have been backflipping for the past 10 years) like Boston Dynamics / $CCXI to come to life.

@VixOver20 They’re publishing stupid sensational reports.

By taking a new architecture then overreaching by saying the entire TAM will drop 40-50%.

It’s like if I said OpenAI optimized memory compression so $MU TAM drops 80%.

I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case. https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing:

- Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer).

- AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality.

- Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples.

"X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x"

I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players.

But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver.

But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.

@softmaxedx I’m just reiterating fundamentals and nuanced details. But I don’t control what others do or how markets ultimately react.

Nobody’s right 100% of the time and could always be wrong.

But I do have conviction I’m correct directionally with $SIVE. Which is why I have money on the line and remain personally long.

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.

In the past few months alone, we've seen:

1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production

2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.

3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO.

-> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO.

4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO

-> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier.

-> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer)

-> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar.

-> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA

5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026.

6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer")

7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium

8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter.

9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts

With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LT

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.

In the past few months alone, we've seen:

1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production

2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.

3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO.

-> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO.

4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO

-> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier.

-> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer)

-> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar.

-> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA

5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026.

6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer")

7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium

8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter.

9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts

With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LT

@j1nv3st Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore.

There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back.

I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and roadmap.

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players.

Then regarding ASP updates:

- 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76%

- 3in InP substrates price hike 78%

- 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75%

- 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+

- Prices lower domestically in China as expected.

Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages.

My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand.

We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

@heyfinlo Yep, $AMZN looks like the clear winner in physical AI shift.

I think the Amazon ecosystem... is probably going to the catalyst for robotics players compared to others in the Google/Meta ecosystems.

I kinda see parallels to the $GOOGL TPU effect on suppliers like $LITE or Mediatek, but for robotics... like Agility. Still early though.

Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April.

Which listed:

1. Figure AI

2. Agility Robotics $CCXI

3. Apptronik

4. $TSLA

5. Boston Dynamics

6. Physical Intelligence

7. 1X Technologies

8. $AMZN Robotics

9. Covariant

10. Skild AI

As the National Champions of the United States robotics program.

"The United States leads the world in where robotics is heading: Fundation models, OpenAI-style scaling laws applied to action, autonomous vehicles.

While losing the race on where robotics is shipping today."

Then it frames:

1. Rare Earths Exposure: from Neodymium for motors to samarium-cobalt for high-temp applications as a critical vulnerability.

2. Actuator dependency. Series elastic actuators, quasi-direct-drive motors, and precision reducers overwhelmingly sourced from Japan, Germany, and China

As one of the main vulnerabilities alongside Manufacturing velocity/data collection cost/regulations. Then their take was:

"With at least six well-funded US humanoid companies competing for a market still in early formation, we expect at least two significant consolidation events (acquisition or merger) in 2027".

With Logistics / E-commerce

Just some consolidated updates on memory:

- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.

- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.

- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond

- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.

- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.

- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.

Something to note:

Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.

But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.

I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...

I'm just sitting back and watching things play

Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck):

- Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN.

- As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has also risen sharply.

- Industry sources said Panasonic, Samsung are experiencing supply shortages for BBU cells.

So main beneficiaries imo look like:

- Samsung SDI (KRX: 006400) / Panasonic Energy as cleaneset winners

- Murata (6981) / this keeps showing up everywhere with MLCC and others lol

- LG Energy (KRX: 373220) / incoming

There's not really much direct US players? But adjacent read through like $VRT, $ETN or $BWA / $ENS. Not quite in my domain emphasis cup of tea though.

I wouldn't conflate this as all shortages having a massive TAM, but there could be opportunities...

Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B.

Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia.

Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise?

(disclosure: no open positions in any of the above).

@fivepointscap Yep, $SE $MELI $JD $AMZN and the other e-commerce giants are the most obvious beneficiary of physical AI push that I can think of

Given they can optimizing opex immediately with robotics. Names like $META are kinda less clear.

@mkavethewave No, it’s the same if not higher. Markets are closed and if there’s no new developments, then I have nothing new to add.

$SIVE is personally one of my largest holdings and I’ve posted all my thoughts on their hyperscaler supplier relationships. So I’m just waiting for volume ramps and company execution and ignoring a lot of noise.

The convertible notes is not new information and was likely priced in for awhile. Having it executed now is not a positive thing like others are framing, since Bootstrap Europe is a venture debt fund.

There’s likely instituonal swaps happening given oversubscribed instituonal demand around these levels. $140m is not a big amount in terms of institutional flows.

Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers".

Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market.

Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance...

"Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority."

This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoiding 600,000 future hires with robots.

But it's very interesting to see the shift in worker roles to robot support. Maybe $DASH to $UBER to $MELI, we'll all start to see this rollout following China.

There's a lot of retail disbelief over humanoid/robotics commercialization. But feels like the direction industry is heading down is pretty clear.

an apple a day keeps the bottleneck away

UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手":

- SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse.

- The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF.

- The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report

$HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.

@SpongeQuant “AGIBOT humanoid robots completed 64 hours of factory work, producing 17,625 tablets on livestream.”

Yeah… it’s kinda gg for a lot of different workforces when it starts rolling out https://t.co/owrksAqhTv

Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding.

3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity.

People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years.

And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids.

You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI?

If you see past the "assistive robotics" public image framing to prevent protest, it's clear the goals is maximizing, opex efficiency.

The main areas I think are safe however are regulation bound (eg. Medicine), ultra specialized labor, or require human/emotional connections.

But I think you'll be blown away by the rate of change when frontier technologies become national security races between US and China... especially when China is currently in the lead.

@frank_be $MSFT was underwater DCs.

These are floating DCs https://t.co/oOEyTEBJ5z

TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists?

Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography…

It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day.

If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute? https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

I'm bearish on humans.

Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production.

No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals.

And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.

@256_rc -> Writes bearish report, specifically calling out $HIMX and $LITE

-> Proceeds to add $HIMX and $LITE their actively managed ETF after they drop -25-40%.

op strategy.

Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets:

Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models.

1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B

2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B

3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B

4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B

5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above.

Some notes:

- "Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed".

Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenAI consolidation.

- "World models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment."

I said months ago 4D AI/World Models would be the most interesting moving forward, and called out $AEVA as potential exposure. But there's not exactly any pure play exposure. But probably next we'll wait for the next IPOs here in this sector maybe H1 next year.

- AIGC application sector is the most mature for AI technology commercialization

"Artificial Intelligence Generated Content commercialization is mature but no clear winner yet".

Makes sense. in th

So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain:

- Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM).

Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital.

Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027.

So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries.

Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp".

These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp.

Regardless, just an update on developments.

@blkslymn This institution literally said $LITE $HIMX and other names were overvalued. And posted misleading statements on CPO delays causing an optical sector crash.

Then launched a photonics ETF… including Himax that crashed 40%+.

How is this even allowed without disclosures?

Regardless I’m expecting a recovery now that there’s increased institutional demand and photonics way oversold selloff imo.

@yuntungshieh Disgusting that they’re able to say $LITE and $HIMX are overvalued.

And then include them in their ETF after they crash.

But glad they included $SIVE into it at least.

@Shin0kei I’m not trying to pick a fight…. But there should be disclosures if they’re launching a photonics ETF.

But caused a crash on optical names right before by posting misleading statements.

@zhouyuan888 I personally heavily added to some of my optical positions today.

Immaterial selloff off false meta capex cuts and false CPO delays.

I can’t give advice on what others should do though.

Be SemiAnalysis:

- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.

Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted

- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

@softmaxedx I blame Semianalysis for crashing the entire photonics market for misleading CPO delay reporting that $NVDA refuted.

Alongside global journal $META recent misleading reporting…

But I think they realized everything was crashing along with it, so they needed a macro bull post.

@ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up?

That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others:

“We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”.

“Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”.

Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute…

When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5.

I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today.

Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable…

Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics

As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.

Lot of misinformation recently about $META.

Recently major journals have been stating

“AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED”

To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex:

As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.

Just a cesspool of disinformation recently about $META.

Recently articles have been stating

“AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED”

To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex:

As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.

@navborgen But market narratives were saying Meta would drop out of the AI race, stop capex, and sell excess compute!!

Can’t believe that caused everything to crash.

$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5.

Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”.

Who said they were out of the AI race again? https://t.co/X2sOgMRTuw

$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR.

"Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96

Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too?

Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.

@PatrikBatCrypto I mean it’s probably being repriced right now since it’s one major institutions trying to take positions and were forced to disclose after hitting the threshold.

I’m sure others were probably trying to position as well.

I don’t think they’re trying to control management, just have exposure to US leading humanoid players.

Just this hour:

BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI.

I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd

Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again…

UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”.

Regardless:

$AEHR down -18.3%

$AAOI down -17.13%

$SIVEF down -15.4%

$SNDK down -14.8%

$TER down -13.8%

$GLW down -11.4%

$MRVL down -11.2%

$LITE down -10.2%

$NBIS down -7.8%

Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks.

FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex…

Markets are stupid sometimes.

@SUOHA_AI I remember first investing in $RKLB back at $15 or so.

It just find it rare to get exposure to a downstream + frontier sector leader. So I’m personally not missing this chance again with $CCXI.

@hitraderjoe Recent US IPO models have been very stupid like $SPCX / $CBRS hiking valuations to absurd numbers before going public.

More US listings should follow Unitree (which would likely command higher valuations) + China's IPOs like Lightelligence.

That allow retail access at the same valuations as private investors + access to these companies before they grow...

So glad $CCXI is doing the same. Also, maybe they see more momentum if they start out at lower valuations.

@supplepest What's this PTSD about SPACs? I only care about the company fundamentals.

$NVDA, Softbank, $AMZN and others don't just back some random crapco. And Foxconn is funding the PIPE.

It's just for faster listing, especially giving US investors alternatives to the extremely anticipated up Unitree IPO coming out around the same timeframe.

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo.

Personal Rankings:

1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI

2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company)

3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now.

With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player.

Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors.

NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization.

No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV:

Which would value Figure at $156B...

While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today.

So my personal preference is $CCXI.

@CFc19971622 Yes? Increasing your entire revenue pipeline by 77% in a single quarter is extremely good numbers.

Majority of it was photonics growth from InP lasers. Sivers earnings were stellar if you look at forward growth.

Valuations are based on future earnings, not trailing 12 months on NRE and pre-production contracts.

@MosheFeins48329 After $AXTI went from $13 to $140, somewhere along the way up they had a massive float expansion along with dilution.

Which it got approved, so as I mentioned before, I wasn't as comfortable talking about it if there's excessive dilution on retail investors.

But I do think it's undervalued if they weaponize price hikes like $SNDK.

@CFc19971622 Are you stupid?

1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue.

2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue.

3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue.

4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue.

5. Other pluggable players, potentially Eoptolink/Innolight mass producing pluggables with $SIVE as lasers is revenue.

6. $POET entering volume production is revenue.

@piyush1337 VCSEL was always an option for short reach? MicroLED is much further out in terms of commercialization.

I've also seen a lot of bot farms posting about VCSEL all of a sudden recently, not sure why.

But it's pretty clear by now CW lasers are going to be the dominant architecture of choice. There's always going to be concurrent paths going forward, nothing new.

@Cped221267 Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell.

$SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs.

With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term.

Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027.

Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters.

It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.

@ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days.

They're also capable of doing the opposite.

Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.

Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.

Quantum barely has any revenue.

$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)

$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.

Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.

So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.

Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).

Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.

Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.

Bloomberg just has a tendency to publis

@sokarsokk Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course.

Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such.

If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums relative to revenue.

@blkslymn I’m personally long $CCXI and have highest concentration in Agility Robotics (NFA). It’s currently around a ~$4.9B valuation.

Figure’s last round was $39B last year, and that was before the increasing interest in humanoids/robotics this year.

Then a large part of $TSLA $1T+ valuations come from humanoids.

I like companies like LeaderDrive… but usually the downstream players capture the most value in the end.

And I find it rare to see one that has public exposure early on.

I just realized Boston Dynamics CEO shared the same sentiment:

“Robotics is next. America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”.

However, currently China accounts for 54%+ of all global robotics deployments.

- calls for Internet scaleable database of physical world (kinda got reminded of Niantic that has a huge dataset from Pokemon Go)

- dedicated National robotics strategy to compete against China’s leadership in this space

- ISO + regulation for robotics safety

This is all high level:

But my prioritize thought process is how do we support and scale a Made in USA supply chain for robotics/humanoids?

I’ve been hammering home rare earths for the longest time, that the US isn’t doing enough to subsidize or scale this industry.

But another thing to take note is subsidies for components, forcing $TSLA and others to use Chinese suppliers over Western ones, even if assembly is done in USA… to keep costs down.

Which is why I’ve liked Agility Robotics $CCXI since they source 75% of parts from the US, despite higher BOM to start out with.

Regardless it’s pretty clear this Robotics is coming and becoming a national security priority:

From the days of backflipping humanoid YT videos.

@shenvarr Sure,

-$471M/month revenue ramp projections H1 entering H2 2027.

- News about $AMD signing LTAs with $AAOI + other players for CW laser capacity agreements.

Right now there’s AI sector selloffs following $META news (I think this is a misconception).

With photonics selling off harder than most given an analyst firm bearposting on Nvidia and CPO delays.

But I think it will recover when fundamentals catch up, I’m personally just waiting.