大V信息速递

@lijiu163076 $NVDA is growing at a capacity constrained 70% next year, which is ridiculously good.

My opinion is that it's hard to go wrong with Nvidia, because it's almost like a semiconductor ETF? They own decent parts of $INTC, $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR, $NBIS, and Mediatek now.

@KnightCapitalYT I mean I do have 1 single share of $IREN now, so I'd love to see them get a deal with Anthropic.

There were leaked memos suggesting that Anthropic was looking to secure more in Australia, and that just so happens to be the country Iren was heavily investing in.

Buuut, the $25-30B capex number is always a bit daunting during current macro, despite securing a lot of financing via prepayments.

Anthropic signs a $35B AI compute deal with $NVDA backed Lambda.

$HUT / DC, with Lambda / GPUs.

Frontier model demand is rapidly outpacing the ecosystem's ability to build capacity.

It also looks like Anthropic is securing more compute... Which neocloud/colo player is next? https://t.co/49yvFKjr49

@mykwantitative Yep, probably that as well in a similar window. Seeing $SNDK go vertical at close was interesting

Interesting to see $QQQ spike when Trump gave a comment on potential rate hikes:

Answer: "Trump: No, I have a lot of respect for him, and he'll do what he has to do.

I think our interest rates are too high." https://t.co/vKwUWbUfHx

@dBooray Yeah, I think a lot of the valuation reset has already happened.

I'm sure for most ppl, seeing a drawdown without much conviction is daunting.

But periods of fear/forced selling are typically the best opportunities as well (eg. I avged down on Foci after drop, and now my current position is up ~55%).

We'll see what happens, I'm sure this was a pretty long post to say idk what's going to happen

Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals.

If you're curious about my take though:

We're seeing record visibility with

- memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs

- $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend.

- combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc).

vs.

uncomfortable macro where:

- Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%.

- July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y

- July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1%

-10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007

- Iran tensions continuing

- Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea

And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes.

There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map.

I'm not a macro expert but my take is:

The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints.

While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated

Yep, with $NVDA investing $3.5B into Mediatek.

It does feel like Nvidia is playing kingmaker with the next generation of ASIC winners like $MRVL / Mediatek, with a second order effect of eroding $AVGO position.

Playbook feels similar to what they did with Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CRWV (vs. hyperscaler cloud programs)

Help create the next leaders, then make them both financially and strategically aligned with Nvidia.

I do think it’s brilliant, but moves like this might push $AMD, $AVGO, and certain hyperscalers closer together.

Regardless this move cements Nvidia’s strategic position in inference (where hyperscaler ASICs were a former long-term bear case).

@balllvest With how the trends are going with $MRVL and Mediatek. My guess is Alchip (disclosure, I own this) or $QCOM might be next.

I think the ASIC pie gets bigger for all of them though.

@Matrix_B0SS I actually learned today that Mediatek is partners with Ayar for CPO (not just investors) from public filings.

And of course it's known that $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar. But Sivers is probably too far upstream for now. https://t.co/gs8e1z2rf1

Today, $NVDA has announced a $3.5B investment into Mediatek.

It appears Nvidia is "networking" itself into the broader ASIC ecosystem, from $MRVL to MediaTek.

And have future ecosystems aligned with Nvidia standards. (maybe to fend off $AVGO as well) https://t.co/okdGKS51U3

@AizuddinAl4653 That’s for you to estimate yourself! I don’t want to give MC estimates especially if people misinterpret the modeling

I’m just celebrating that the chokepoint thesis was validated by external commentary around monopoly-like market share figures.

And since the chokepoint converted into likely 10+ new LTAs/capacity agreements because of siph mass adoption.

Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today:

- 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total.

- $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor"

$TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market

If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint:

(UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips)

Revenue usually flows through you.

“Memory is a bubble.”Explain this then, KOSPI bears:

Samsung has reportedly reserved ~70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 via LTAs with $NVDA, $MSFT, and $GOOGL as main counterparties.

Five years of demand visibility… https://t.co/GUGWTkXkMc

Imagine Celestial ($MRVL acquisition) was public.

The valuation would probably be astronomical in US markets (if I had to guess, $6-10B)

Because 2028 revenue projections were $500m (q4 annualized runrate), 2029 revenue projections were $1B.

And because Celestial is a core part of hyperscaler CPO programs.

Celestial's 2026 Q2 earnings would have been:

- Close to $0 revenue (Marvell said "revenue and earnings since the acquisition were not material")

- Losing -$12.5M/quarter ($50M/year)

Would people who knew what they were talking about looking at qualification cycle players say...

1. based on Celestial's Q2 P/S numbers and because it was losing -$12.5M a quarter... That it's a worthless meme stock?

Or

2. with CPO hyperscaler opportunities for 2028, it should be valued at $6-10B?

And I think that's a core cultural disagreement between US / EU cultures + markets.

If you knew how to evaluate qualification cycle players, which number actually matters? I'd argue overwhelmingly the latter.

@bob80924 Yes, I added that as a side note. But my theory is $RPI eventually gets the overflow from mac Mini shortages.

Same idea with Openclaw now applied to frontier lab agent RL training.

And those sales would be economically meaningful given Raspberry Pi’s size relative to Apple

No proof of that yet, just a guess.

@ren_stocks Would be a funny idea to see an IPO of a Mac Mini neocloud

@jukan05 Yep, reasonable point on the duration. I just found $AAPL AI windfall to be pretty amusing. https://t.co/ki0Wp3X6YD

$AAPL is now an important AI company apparently?

-> "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of Apple Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning

-> Anthropic is renting Apple Mac mini units from $AMZN to complete similar AI tasks

I've never seen a company win so hard by doing nothing.

But whenever I see Apple + AI, I think of my beloved $RPI. Apparently Anthropic is working with Raspberry Pi now for their new model Hardware Standard, as of the 27th.

There's nothing yet about Anthropic/OpenAI buying Raspberry Pi devices for similar tasks, but maybe some OSINT researcher can do some digging.

@nosignal62478 I think $AAOI is fine. I didn't list them here because they're not known to be a merchant cw laser supplier (given they use them internally for transceivers).

Demand visibility into 2027 is incredible, there's just a $600m ATM, which presents a lot of short term overhang.

@SidkMena Yeah, I was forced to averaged down during that massive July sector crash.

Now up ~55% on FOCI and ~50% on Xintec at least but some of my other names are still recovering

$TSM Vice President of Advanced Packaging:

"Foundries can scale up the optical engine, but the real bottlenecks to large scale deployment lie elsewhere...

Including lasers, optical fiber, fiber-optic connectors, and test" (UDN)

Just some bucket ideas:

Lasers: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, LandMark (3081), LuxNet, Sumitomo, Furukawa

Optical fiber / FAU: Foci, Browave, $GLW, Sumitomo

Fiber Optic / CPO Connectors: BizLink, $GLW , Fujikura, Nextronics, COXOC

CPO testing: MPI (6223), Advantest, $FORM, Msscorps, $KEYS, Chroma

(disclosure: exposure to theme above, individual names not named by TSMC)

There are others I like as well, such as ShunSin, which now has explicit TSMC COUPE exposure but probably belongs under a different category like packaging/integration.

eg. "Foxconn unit ShunSin confirms TSMC COUPE partnership"

I don't think there's anything too new vs. H1, aside from ongoing news (eg. FAU looks like there will have a demand imbalance in 2027, from a report last week).

But it's helpful to reiterate overall beneficiaries from time to time...

ESMT (3006) is 1.9x P/E ratio off July's earnings annualized.

Latest net income was: $109M net income/July, which is ~$1.3B annualized. With ~$395.9M net cash and with $249.6M in inventory.

The market cap less net cash and inventory is equivalent to:

~17 months of July earnings.

Where monetizing that inventory benefits from rising memory prices.

Their ASP hike expectations were +105–113% Q/Q last quarter from other analyst notes.

DDR2/DDR3, NOR Flash, SLC NAND, prices are expected to keep rising H2.

The main question is duration, but I personally think legacy DRAM/NAND shortages tightens throughout 2027. Others might disagree.

Other analysts like Huanan argue that PSMC wafer hikes are largely pass through (we'll find out H2).

Most people are finding companies with ~20 forward P/E ending 2028 to be attractive...

But 1.9x current runrate P/E seems like an anomaly to me personally.

That's my take on the company/legacy memory theme, I'll let others/markets decide if that's undervalued.

I'm going to miss the days of Korean retail reacting heavily to $EWY / Samsung / $SKHY daily volatility.

New piece: "Korean day traders flee leveraged chip ETFs as regulatory curbs bite"

- Trading value in ETFs designed to deliver 2x daily returns of Samsung / SK Hynix has fallen to just 4% of its June peak

- The requirement follows earlier measures, including a higher minimum deposit, aimed at cooling speculative activity

- And then came the final boss... A 5 day trading course where:

"Investors must download a Windows-only program and spend at least one hour each day trading with virtual funds"

$MSFT Windows wiped out the Korean retail.

@KostasMoschovas Yes

@Myv3rz 如果你在 $IBKR 搜尋 並啟用台灣證券交易所，就可以找到。

不過這不是投資建議。

The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes.

So looked through H1 sellside models...

From March ESMT reports:

Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2

Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing

By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of:

+105–113% Q/Q blended.

Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected.

So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT.

About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through

If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around.

If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports

1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory.

2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026.

3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs.

4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected.

Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP ca

@Sovranoq Thanks for the correction, harder than **just** finding power.

Just some random ideas from Elon’s post:

$AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling

$NVT - Cooling

$MOD - Chillers / Cooling

$IESC - Wiring

$MTRS - chillers

$JCI - chillers

$HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this)

$PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber)

$CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - networking

Since Elon Musk cited:

- transformers

- wiring

- liquid cooling

- massive chillers + complex networking

As the point of failure for AI compute buildout.

Which is “harder than finding power”

@Omardrisss There’s bubbles within the broader AI supercycle (eg. frontier lab valuations, some Neoclouds).

And some pop here and there.

But the overall theme with $NVDA and $TSM in the center of it all looks structural and would keep ramping up.

FYI to the AI bears: $NVDA projects $1.3T of hyperscaler spend for 2027.

Up from ~$800B in 2026, alongside ~70% revenue growth despite remaining capacity constrained… far above prior Street expectations of ~45%.

That capex flows across the AI supply chain… from memory and networking to foundries. Especially through the new bottlenecks/chokepoints that didn’t benefit from older generations.

We’re like 2 hours into the party where people started off drinking Sapporo draft beer.

Someone spiked Situational’s drinks and we had to pause the party for 30 min.

But now it’s back on with tequila shots on the table.

I think the real party is about to begin.

@ram_blings I think they just need to spend the time to answer the right questions...

If they set themselves up in an interview where the questions to the CEO are leading like:

"Why are you bleeding out and how do you stop it"

Over..

"Ayar just raised $500m, how do you see your laser ramp with them looking for 2028"

You're going to get different responses + reactions.

@wannabepanacea So far, what I've seen is market volatility stemming from communication failures and noise. Thesis break would be

1. issues with their foundry allocations, since that would affect supply. (But they have 2 now).

2. Or failing qualifications. (they signaled $JBL orders for H1, but we'll see).

Fundamentally I think $SIVE is in an amazing spot during a CW laser bottleneck.

I also see more potential for Sivers to become a larger optical giant rather than remain just a chokepoint supplier... which is why I focus on company direction a lot more.

Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER:

Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027:

- $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027

-> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers

- 3 pluggable makers (evaluation)

- 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment)

Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+:

- $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed))

-> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers

External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027:

- $POET (confirmed)

-> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users

- O-Net (confirmed)

-> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia

- Likely $AEVA (mapping)

-> -> supplying to OE -> hyperscalers / lidar

- SemiNex (confirmed)

Optical I/O for 2028:

- Ayar Labs (confirmed)

-> -> Likely $AMD, ALchip, and hyperscaler ASIC program end users + $NVDA NVLink

- $MRVL Celestial (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)

- Lightmatter (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)

- Lightelligence (potential customer from 2023-2024 disclosures)

Then potentially $AAPL for 2028 for next-generation wearable updates and other programs from TFLN with Lightium.

In terms of capacity allocations:

- Win Semi

- 1 other foundry (with tremendous

It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X:

- try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it

- get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups

- throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals

When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts.

One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone.

I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth.

But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls.

My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100.

All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to.

I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and let

@CryptoBankz_65 Two things: I'm hungry for carrots now. The second was was that... this was simplified TLDR.

Since I didn't include the implications of more carrot demand across red (2), green (3), blue (4) carrots and how people who only ate blue carrots.

Started to eat green carrots because they were so hungry.

And people who only preferred green carrots started to eat red carrots.

Or the famous carrot farmer named Winbond, ditching one of their older red carrot farms, causing more carrot shortages.

Okay just to simplify this:

There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers.

A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos.

Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato.

But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet..

Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer.

So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up.

So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots.

So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds.

But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price.

now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings.

Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027?

All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.

Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments.

Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff.

If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to:

1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026.

2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026.

3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening)

4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density)

5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate

For official breakdown:

DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue

DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue

eMCP/MCP ≈30%

Analog + other ≈15%

Regardless, duration/hikes is the key:

-> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term."

-> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4.

-> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030)

-> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders

-> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028"

->Nanya expli

@Minnelli1286325 I like $RDDT, very profitable company, grew 61% Y/Y, I expect them to find more ways to increase monetization of audiences.

One of my favorite software bucket names.

I find the bear cases of "less AI search citations" to be dumb, since if you ask 100 of people on the street how they found or visit Reddit.

I'm pretty confident not a single person would say OpenAI citations.

It's already on the destination level as Youtube/Instagram.

@he8496 $AXTI would need to hike ASPs of InP substrates to extreme levels you see in memory to see further rerating eg. $20-30B valuations.

I think the bottleneck is proven, their chokepoint is proven.

However, I don't know what the contracts or LTAs with $LITE and $COHR entail. We'll find out over time (disclosure* own AXT shares).

$MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year.

$RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB

@dxleolibra1003 Cool to see you reaching out to $SIVE IR and it's even better you got a response back from the CEO himself!

I do think Sivers' CEO is amazing, just gotta escape local markets.

@handz18 我只是在列最近到处出现的新瓶颈

以后我会尽量少用太技术性的术语

@piyush1337 $AMKR has existing traditional packaging capacity underutilized (like in Philippines), so if that 20%+ deficit is true

Probably fills that up at higher prices so that's brrr to nearer term revenue.

I still think the main ramp is early 2028 with Arizona once their $TSM + $NVDA stuff takes off.

Missed this mention earlier but IC design insiders reveal that OSAT providers have already warned clients:

"traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" (eg. $AMKR, ethereum:0x041ff0e49f6f774e7dc7bd10ee4a14c00b1d80b2, Powertech as potential beneficaries)

With: "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck (ASMPT, $KLIC)

-> influx of AI server shipments has triggered a spike in demand for mature chips

-> existing mature packaging capacity at OSATs is being rapidly absorbed

-> securing early access to traditional packaging capacity is now becoming a challenge

Cascading bottleneck patterns are occurring across memory (eg. DDR2, DDR3) and now packaging capacity I guess.

@maroonjacket1 Nah $SIVE CEO is goated, but if you go to a fishermen's market, don't expect many questions outside of fish.

Sivers needs to both start treating and communicating themselves as a hypergrowth optical company.

Rather than being weighed down by local markets.

@dBooray No I'm still very bullish operationally on $SIVE, and much more so with the additional foundry allocation + 6 pluggable disclosure.

I just couldn't get the answers I wanted to from these calls, because the leading questions asked were crap or focused on the wrong things.

Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising.

Over the US.

The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include:

- Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding"

- "Why can't you disclosure your private customers"

- Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious)

- Implications for non-photonics orders

So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means"

US analysts would have pressed:

- Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage

- Around much capacity revenue would those allocations lead to (half of AOI calls are around those from US analysts)

- $GFS NPO/CPO/pluggable scale implications and downstream end customers opportunities

- Ayar / CPO player 2028 ramp (that happened to raise $500m+) or other products like ELS production with O-net and TAM opportunities there.

- How big those 6 new pluggable players were, rather than asking "why can't you disclosure them"

- Clarifying CFO legalposts around listing timeline and M&A TAM expansion opportunities

So investors can get a sen

@Happy_Chachi $SIVE direction has already been shared and aligned with what I've agreed with:

-> M&A focus (they brought on 2 new related board members)

-> NASDAQ listing (already announced plan)

-> Capacity during bottleneck (announced new foundry partner)

-> Many development/qualifications ongoing

Their communication was super far off in this quarter's call.

They shouldn't need to spend all their time defending against the useless Swedish market accusations about "opportunity pipeline".

And just focus on economic impact of forward growth opportunities + accelerate NASDAQ listing process rather than giving lawyer like disclousres.

@sebiisb Look at the contrast of how Elon Musk communicates in his transcripts. Very forward looking and visionary.

And focuses around economic implications of GROWTH areas (eg. humanoids), not weak parts of $TSLA earnings.

Sivers transcripts felt like lawyer like disclosures and just going on the defensive defending opportunity pipelines usage with their allspace type contracts.

@platochi Communication 100% needs to be better. The CFO statement made me want to throw my phone out the window.

"the decision becomes much more a question of market conditions, of investor demand on business momentum and on whether we believe the listing at that moment would create the long-term value for shareholders"

This isn't a courtroom???

Even I wouldn't hold the stock if I heard the CFO reiterate this one more time.

@CryptoVandelay Fully dependent on $SIVE execution and int. audience communication.

They have:

-> tremendous laser capacity during a bottleneck from 2 foundries

-> many ongoing qualifications

-> capital from $70M fundraise

If they want to leverage their way to a Cloud Light/Ayar/Lightmatter type acquisition of a private company.

And pull forward NASDAQ listing process by pouring resources to do so, I can see Sivers pulling a fast recovery.

@NieMehrKrieg Operationally, Sivers has been doing amazing. Communication wise, it's been subpar and atrocious from the CFO.

Just to give you a sense of valuations:

$SIVE is cheap enough now that $MRVL could just blow spare change to buy it and vertically integrate their Celestial acquisition.

If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:

1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.

-> 6 pluggable engagements

-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)

That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it.

And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those.

2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one.

The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement:

"we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time."

It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets.

Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers.

Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines.

3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing.

-> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to h

@dBooray @SoundResponse I use pipeline revenue as a measure est. quality of their customers relative to previous pipeline revenue estimates.

Eg. Q1 $JBL / $GFS $700M+, vs. Q2. 6 pluggable partners added.

Not really a good figure to go off for revenue projections, since I’d expect addressable market + ramp to be much better once they expand product lines (eg. More downstream into optical engines or complete pluggables).

In the meantime I think it’s better to track $JBL / qualification ramps and wafer capacity modeled into revenue, and assume it gets sold given shortages.

@KongJiJustin https://t.co/opsLQ2g1Ld

@Moon1ightSt 太美了😭

只是因为这张图浏览量太高了…

白毛牛来 https://t.co/WiHhXVqtK5

Are Frontier lab relative valuations are too absurd nowadays?

If Anthropic IPOs at $2T… 10% of that can buy up almost every major established consumer brand:

From:

Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme…

Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s…

Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose.

All together. Using 10% of Anthropic.

And they’d still have $51.6B leftover.

@iammichaelz 取决于你看的是哪一层存储

很多传统 DRAM/NAND 和 NOR Flash 厂商目前的远期 P/E 仍然只有 1.8-3 倍

所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有：

$SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底”

$SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%.

$NVDA 表示 供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平 而且还在继续上涨.

Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论.

我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年..

所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.

@Ice_Tradingg The market also strongly disagreed when $AXTI was $13.

@shawnyang1128 This was disclosed wafer capacity from their foundry partners back in 2024. Maybe one of the US players got added.

I’m not a fan of Sivers switching to hybrid manufacturing at this stage though (think it targeted 1/3rd of capacity).

But I do agree it’s needed to be vertically integrated like $AAOI or $LITE.

@sokarsokk Mix of algorithms, short sellers, dozens of repurposed/dormant accounts dedicated toward spreading negative news about $SIVE

Hard to believe accounts used for marketing during 2016 Asian ICOs or new X accounts would just start posting 50 negative comments only about Sivers.

Regardless of near term volatility these things cause, fundamentals will catch up.

The materially bearish thing I see is implications of increased capex spend from going to a hybrid manufacturing model from fablite (but it’s inevitable in the long run)

I haven’t really seen much people comment on that

@ethics3606 If you take Q2 operating cash outflow and the $70m they raised.

That amount alone would last around 2.5 years, even if you ignore income that flows in from quals -> HVM.

They also have no interest debt after bootstrap conversion + exit. They’re more than fine

Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:

Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.

So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:

- Large capacity from Win Semi

- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while"

And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount).

The nuance I'm reading is:

- $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available

- $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though).

- $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market

Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally.

So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers.

And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)...

Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 203

@SoundResponse Lot of critiques are from people who don’t understand how to evaluate qualification cycle semi players.

Got the same thing with $AAOI back at $30 or $AEHR at $30.

Goes to show when people look hard into development contract revenues, one-off accounting charges, rather than how hyperscaler supplier qualification timelines are going

Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen.

Just for AI DCs alone:

- Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable)

- 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline)

- ELS path with O-Net

- ELS path with $POET

- Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem)

- Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers)

- Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024)

- InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium

Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage.

As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry.

Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics.

$SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.

@Kr_Soze I've never seen someone say new "tremendous capacity allocation for Sivers" for laser supply... "available now" during a bottleneck.

And a disclosure working with 6 new pluggable manufacturers beyond $JBL (so 7).

"was awful". Think majority of people like yourself just misunderstand evaluating qualification cycle players.

@carrioresearch You're conflating custom products with regular timelines (eg. pluggable players).

And this makes sense when you look at their post about Lightmatter, Lightelligence, and Celestial back in 2023-2024 (where these players take off 2028)

For the pluggable players they mentioned "some can achieve" very rapid qualification and ramp" likely in 2027.

@lol1dragon Massive CW laser bottleneck ongoing.

-> 2 foundries (Win + another major player) with substantial capacity for $SIVE

-> $JBL clear ramp timing

- 6 new pluggable players in eval/later stage disc for near term opportunities

-> $GFS, Ayar, $POET, (potentially Celestial + other CPO players).

-> not even including the other work they do with TFLN and others.

I'm very positive fundamentally after this.

@sebiisb Yeah, usually new foundry qualifications might take a lot of time if they started now...

But they said tremendous capacity is "available now" for CW DFB laser production.

Which is amazing news given CW laser shortages.

Just to support that too, management was asked if Sivers could sell lasers right away using the new partner capacity.

The CEO said yes, that they have been working with the partner "for a while."

$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR:

- 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now.

Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations.

"3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage."

And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil).

- Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027

LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp.

- "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now"

This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL.

CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks).

As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same.

- "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while

@degenlurker_ @nimishx $GFS has $SIVE as their reference laser design and showcased them as a laser supplier for CPO/NPO/pluggables for GFS scale.

Ayar (leading CPO player) has $SIVE listed as their primary laser supplier.

Again all these newer 1.6T and CPO (scale up) architectures ramp in 2027/2028, it's hard to provide concrete volume contracts/projections if players like $JBL haven't qualification with their hyperscaler customers.

@Ingeltun Maybe because $NVDA is a $5+ trillion dollar company.

And then you're comparing that to a qualification stage $1B photonics company where all their ramps happen 2027/2028.

@nimishx KPI has always been the consistent. It's just an indicator of how things would ramp.

Main thing analysts look at are their hyperscaler suppliers like $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and other pluggable/CPO partners.

And how their programs scale, with $SIVE sitting upstream.

Rather than trying to argue with what opportunity pipelines mean.

@CryptoVandelay $SIVE primary exchange is closed. An OTC market is extremely thin and a small sell order can trigger a large % move.

@whatdahellson It's slightly different since $LPK revenue has likely been delayed given industry GCS delays with Samsung Electro-mechanics/SKC Absolics

$SIVE is the laser supplier to $JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar for CPO, and others.

There's been no credible delays to 1.6T/CPO, it's just waiting for their qualifications to finish before volume contracts flow. Those architectures are 2027-2028.

Pipeline grew to $1.2B from $799m from $400m in less than a year, not quite sure how someone expects more.

The revenue quality is different than others, since $SIVE was 55-60% long term gross margins est. off InP lasers.

It's not the same as 30% transceiver margins (with more revenue).

Also you can't suddenly escape qualification cycles and sell out to 2030, especially when they're targeting newer architectures for scale up in H2 2027

@Finishurbkfst23 Because they're qualification stage.

Same thing with $AAOI or $AEHR before their volume inflections.

It's just understanding semi ramp cycles from development -> qualification -> volume ramp.

$SIVE earnings just got released:

$1.2 billion revenue opportunity pipeline growth up 268% from December (incredible growth).

Last ER: $799M (this was a surprise, likely linked to Jabil)

July 2026: ~$1.2B (hinting more either more customer engagements than what's announced or larger volume ramps within programs).

"Sivers continued to reallocate resources from NRE projects toward product ramp preparation.

Sivers expects the impact of this transition to become visible in Q4 2026 and accelerate through 2027 as multiple programs progress toward volume production."

Makes sense on timelines.

Current financials reflect a qualification-stage player before volume ramp:

- $5.64M in revenue (reducing NRE activity, shifting to volume ramps soon)

-$3.72M in adjusted EBITDA (what to look at given one-off charges, eg. social security accounting expense)

Key thing to look at is earnings call in 30 minutes, very excited so far.

@Sunwukong512 https://t.co/IQ6RIcirOq

@OliverDingXin 可以，但以后中文写错了不许做空我

@Tree30068 前几分钟的评论真的太多了。我觉得我的感觉果然没错…

我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的…

@Xlonggo2 兩者都有。很多買家因為預期 2027 年會出現短缺，正在恐慌性囤貨 提前拉高庫存

但同時也確實存在真正的結構性短缺……而且情況可能還會進一步惡化，因為像華邦電（Winbond）這類傳統記憶體廠商，現在已經在和客戶討論 2029–2030 年更高階產品的未來產能配置

所以我不太認為會有多少產能重新回到最老舊的產品線上

@Berlinergy Winbond is actually withdrawing from DDR2 to focus on DDR4/DDR3 and said they expect 2027 to be even tighter.

They're beginning capacity discussions for 2029-2030 + moving toward higher end, so don't quite see them having much to allocate toward older lines again.

As for other players moving toward older lines, qualification takes a lot of time... and there's just very low incentive to.

I looked for foundry dependence, PSMC is Taiwanese, so all good geopolitically.

As for wafer allocations, if I had to put my supply chain hat resiliency hat on, if ESMT stopped supplying DDR2, it would just be absolute destruction downstream, so don't see that scenario (since they're probably the world's largest merchant supplier for this line if Winbond exits)

So don't quite think it would happen... but if they get less wafer allocations, the ASP just gets hiked even more, so earnings would likely remain strong.

I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period.

Same opinion, even after $NVDA call.

And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium).

Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement.

Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory."

As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory:

With $MU, $SNDK, Phison, $SIMO, Nanya, Macronix, Winbond, and $EWY / SK Hynix (HBM/DRAM + NAND + legacy DRAM/NAND + controllers + NOR Flash).

I trimmed down those positions aside from Samsung/SK Hynix longs, since I do believe many have been rerated (eg. Micron $300 -> $1000+ already).

I think the largest price discovery period has played out, but just a waiting game for the operating income to catch up (esp u samsung)

And I used that period to go overweight on photonics.

But I do believe we're seeing a relatively newer cascade down into the "legacy legacy" memory like D

I wanted exposure to DDR2/DDR3 bottleneck ongoing and found ESMT (3006).

A $2.5B MC fabless company with PSMC wafer allocation (esp. focused on DDR2).

Last month's net income was: $109.5M (July month), which annualized is $1.31B net profit (1.9x runrate P/E).

If we look at net profit throughout the months tracking legacy DRAM price hikes:

Jan 2026: ~$16M (est)

Feb 2026: ~$17M

Mar 2026: ~$31M (est)

April 2026: ~$58M

May 2026: ~$60M (est)

June 2026: ~$67M (est)

Jul 2026: ~$110M

(Estimated months are inferred from reported quarterly totals. July is company reported)

This earnings progression reminds me of $SNDK style price hikes + earnings inflection (esp. the report released this month).

And I do expect DDR2/DDR3 capacity to remain constrained throughout 2027 (with legacy players like Winbond withdrawing from certain lines too like DDR2).

It's not quite all inventory liquidation like the other peers. Sure lower cost inventory helped, but the primary driver seems to be the widening spread between wafer costs/supply and legacy dram ASPs?

Their balance sheet is extremely solid as well:

- Cash on hand: ~$395.9M net cash

- $249.6M inventory, $146.3M receivables

And the net income progress

@JonahLupton $NVDA stated demand is much greater than 70%.

It's just that their capacity allows them to deliver 70% revenue growth, which is absurd. https://t.co/NtZqCXdaRU

@StormDirac I think AI is back

@Yolo365247isme Yeah I'm genuinely shocked at those projections, it's like ~$103B revenue beat above consensus lol.

$NVDA is just printing, holy.

$NVDA: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply constrained outlook"

That statement alone is probably more important than the entire earnings beat just now?

Insane upward revision beat from +43.9% expected to 70%.

"With cloud industry backlog now greater than 2 trillion, CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 Billion in 2026 and 1.3 Trillion in 2027"

$1.3 Trillion in 2027. (MS was around $1.2T June, so this is upward projection revisions)

Yeah the high-beta parts of the supply chain growth is going to like this.

$NVDA earnings TLDR:

Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat)

Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat)

DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat)

Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75%

Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating)

For guidance:

Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B

Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot)

Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters.

-> $68.1B

-> $81.6B

-> $96.2B (we are here)

-> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue.

Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr.

TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing.

Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays.

Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself.

Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.

I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now…

But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?

So now you have:

- $LITE (capacity gone)

- $COHR (capacity gone)

- Landmark (capacity committed)

- $AAOI (capacity for transceivers)

- $MTSI (not online)

- $SMTC (limited)

I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia?

So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players).

Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).

Let’s see how they execute.

@4intheflames I’ve been too excited about DDR3/DDR2 implications to look at $NVDA earnings or sleep.

@embgaspbaud The enormous Q2/Q3 DDR2 hike pricing points to it https://t.co/CS770NbwNz

The concept of “cascading bottlenecks” is just super cool.

Because of DDR4 supply shocks and costs:

Lot of ODMs are redesigning downward from DDR4 -> DDR3 -> DDR2.

But even the legacy players themselves like Winbond are withdrawing from DDR2.

Making the bottleneck even worse

@Mengmengeth I don't use external platforms, only X!

I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it!

Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company.

Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up.

@AheadOfTmrw I also misspelled Semtech 2 times, mistakes happen

@equityclimb1 Yeah I missed this quote:

"The industry is forecasting 50 million transceiver units to be consumed. Now we are hearing the number 80, 90 million" https://t.co/WWFP09AP74

All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr":

My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing".

In the current market for optical products.

- No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine.

- I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover:

Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited.

They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp.

- TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings).

Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers.

"We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end.

Very strong statement to make about being majority market share.

- 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI)

q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?"

a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year,

Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...

@jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story...

fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026. https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR

@HealytheGOATT Price took a hit largely due to Boostrap Europe converting 7% of shares outstanding and selling that into the Swedish market from ~July 3rd to maybe ~August 18th completion.

That happened alongside the overall AI sector drop + incorrect reports of CPO delays + short sellers with timing.

There was the final 1.659M in warrants from 2 weeks ago, and looks like it got sold into market strength.

That overhang is largely exhausted, so I think $SIVE will go back to normal after a catalyst (like earnings).

Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days.

What I'm watching out for:

1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts.

-> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away)

-> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027)

So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO.

And in a merchant position:

-> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi)

-> CPO-grade lasers.

Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers.

2. Ongoing developments turning into volume

-> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027.

-> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026.

-> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there.

-> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume).

Aside from that:

3. NASDAQ listing

-> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to

@Meatusmax @adiradir734145 Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE.

Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers.

VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary.

Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats.

Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations...

Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD

@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook.

From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements.

So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.

@Partfortynineg1 I got you covered with the $AXTI cope boobworld morty. https://t.co/dxToRnjPee

@areandatard Why is $SIVE living rent free in your head when it's not even mentioned

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump...

But you know what else is cool?

FAU bottlenecks for CPO.

I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps...

This was some media commentary supporting that:

"It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain"

"Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs"

In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off)

Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand"

Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.

@siflower Not exactly, I think $AAOI stated they avoided LTAs so they wouldn't have too much capacity committed to one customer and have to turn away others.

If they signed LTAs with prepayments, then that in scenario there probably wouldn't need to be such sizeable ATMs.

Decision was a bit surprising though considering how well $NVDA LTAs turned out well for $LITE / $COHR.

I would assume though AOI gets more pricing leverage as time goes on due to current laser/transceiver shortages.

@Jin_lifeng I'd assume it's the D-Day "greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary" announcement later today.

Then Trump escalating a trade war with our friend Canada doesn't make things much better.

Markets don't appreciate uncertainty.

$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production.

With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory.

- 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context

- 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative

Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius.

That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures.

Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.

@awodias Whenever Trump wants to start bull posting markets again I guess.

Maybe midterms? https://t.co/rtKc3KBAmC

Bro why are we fighting a Trade War with our friendly Golden Retriever named Canada.

Shouldn't we be focusing on Iran today?

Trump: Announces 50% Tariffs On Cars, Automotive Parts, and Steel From 2027. https://t.co/40SbPDPMFC

$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations.

This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC.

Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng.

Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more).

What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET.

And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI.

However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet):

Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility.

In terms of timing:

- AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks)

- Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices.

But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it.

I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

"At dawn begins an economic D-Day,

The single greatest financial offensive ​ever marshalled against an adversary", per Bessent in FT.

The US would target nations that engage with Iran's economy and financial system. Press conference is today 1 PM ET.

Not quite sure markets would appreciate this, but we'll see.

@vincent_wong_ what did i just read

After watching clips of China's humanoid Olympics...

I think we're cooked chat.

Still can't believe $GOOGL sold Boston Dynamics, don't think we have another humanoid that can backflip. https://t.co/uERCqW85F5

@Benedict542440 I mean my Chinese fanbase gave my AI chokepoint investing style its own name apparently.

紫苏叶理论”, the “Perilla Leaf Theory” / “Shiso Leaf Theory”, so I’ll say close enough? https://t.co/cy44L7WPrW

@ethics3606 Renaming Hormuz to the Strait of Serenity is still on my bucket list don’t worry

Having a mid-X identity crisis rn:

✓ saw 2025 ideas from $AXTI to $NBIS play out with everyone

✓ we got $AMD bandanas

✓ #1 most subscribed person on X by accident

✓ Chinese “White Hair” nicknames

✓ 1M followers

Still here to track ideas, but what’s the next side quest?

@wannabepanacea I’m expecting a Rosenblatt analyst to ask Marvel about their Spider-Man box office sales revenue vs. networking growth.

Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently:

The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement.

And…

Spider-Man: “Brand New Day” https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo

@OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.

It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently.

Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SPCX hard carrying the launch sector like Faker.

And $RKLB + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030.

This month we also had:

- Drone component tariffs

- American Mining / Critical Mineral deals

- Polysilicon supply chains tariffs

and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.

Why would any investor be excited to invest in Anthropic at a $2T MC?

Whereas Chinese IPOs like Unitree or $CXMT are price discovery events.

US IPOs have gotten it completely wrong nowadays… with pubic markets now serving as liquidity for private holders at hiked valuations. https://t.co/9HSvhArIkM

It's getting much harder to support $AAOI when they keep dropping $500m or $600M ATMs left and right.

At a certain point, the operating outlook could be positive.

But the share structure/financing becomes increasingly shareholder unfriendly.

Really, really, dislike ATMs and incessant capital raises, even if they're building up capacity.

Uhh Citadel?

> Say emergency rate hike. More crashes/liquidations follow

> No rate hike

> Reaches out to buy liquidated hedge fund portfolios

> buys billions of Situational Awareness holdings.

> Says AI bull case is intact

>markets rally

> Sells AI stocks into the buying pressure

I’m just stating the timeline here…

@OnurKocerr No, EML, CW, microLEDs are all parallel tracks, with silicon phonetics + CW being the main commercial focus for 2027-2028, especially for CPO.

If anything, having memory/optical links adds another material TAM increase across laser suppliers including CW DFBs.

Which are already in short supply. So we'll likely see another memory style shortage when 2027-2028 comes about...

Given your top 3 are already sold out for next 2 years, and independent laser capacity coming online like $AAOI are now being used internally for transceivers rather than being sold.

@tozzi21 $POET is supplying Lumilens, which is another top-2 hyperscaler supplier (with billions in customer agreements).

Lite-On is another major player.

I'm just saying they got likely designed out $MRVL Celestial since Marvell has their own packagig/intergration IP in the same layer that Poet is offering.

Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains.

I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments.

Both have been kinda working on it for awhile.

- Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical memory links.

- Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now).

Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance:

(121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025)

- This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw.

(123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial)

There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form.

For more upstream beneficaries:

-> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar.

The interposer/packaging IP layer... P

@iamlilkennedy Already happened

There’s a lot of viral fabricated screenshots of me going around recently.

Some are annoying jokes for engagement, like text-edited posts from me citing bible verses.

But some like “Innolight secures Nvidia NPO orders” or off platform promotional content are maliciously fabricated.

Unfortunately I don’t have the power to prevent false images from circulating.

So please make sure to double check primary sources.

After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs

I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb

Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd.

The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high.

AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029)

Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years"

Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years.

Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments.

We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix).

Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales…

I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.

I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery.

Aside from that just some TLDR stuff:

- $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes.

- $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this

Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this.

- $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO.

The Chinese IPO market is just going brrr from Unitree to memory makers.

US needs to do something similar rather than IPOing companies at trillion dollar valuations already.

- Tyntek limit up there's now order visibility through 2028, given photodiode demand imbalance for photonics.

Elazr GM did say the entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages... I'll probably look more at high-end PD bottlenecks next.

- MS forecasts a 50% Q/Q price increase for DDR4 for Q3, and 10%+ increase for Q4 2026. (Nanya/2408, Windbond/2344, should be happy).

- China reportedly delay

@200pipss Is there something wrong with $GOOGL and $MRVL?

$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company.

"The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used ​with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage ​and move information ⁠across networks."

Which could translate into ~$120 billion ​in revenue through 2033.

Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric).

Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company?

Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.

We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings...

And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated:

Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years.

- "the entire supply chain is out of stock"

- "the supply is still far behind the market demand"

- "the shortage will continue to the next few years"

"Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply."

When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked:

It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.

Unitree (688836) is now public.

And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18%

We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids.

For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4.

$TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company.

But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.

My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit:

- Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins).

- Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA).

- Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE)

- Has 300-400 mW lasers already.

- Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating).

I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...

@Sigurd_Drivenes Don't think they're legally allowed to anyway https://t.co/BFfcCUZl8O

I'm getting Vietnam flashbacks to the launch of OpenAi.

Where with every model, it just keeps getting better... but now with hunanoids.

Unitree has claimed that their humanoids:

- Can now run faster than Usain Bolt.

- Can now jump higher than any human.

And with their IPO tomorrow, it seems like China is leading the hardware race.

@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more.

The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027...

Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.

Looks like we're getting the Strait of America, a new US territory... https://t.co/HCQ139Ys4V

@RancicYaro4064 Japanese companies try to match industry rates, but they don't go out of their way to hike aggressively like 70% Q/Q...

There just needs to be a $SNDK in the industry to lead the way imo, maybe Samsung can be more aggresive here

@darkseidzz I’m not sure how to tell people this… but the NAND/MLCCs/InP bottleneck doesnt disappear if $SNDK or Murata or $AXTI drops in price.

Same group of folks who only look at price volatility on earnings release to see if it’s good or not.

Probably better to look at the actual earnings report or what’s actually happening…

So just tracking the MLCC cycle:

ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting:

- Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data.

Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing.

- Murata was ~24 weeks in June.

July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks.

This was interesting:

“The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027”

Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term.

Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.

I've decided to name my next two pets Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers Semiconductors

@AZAAC6 $CCXI name changes into Agility sometime in October at the earliest. So maybe 2 months from now.

Officially it's Q4.

@DeepValueBagger Apparently there's some +30% breaker -> 10m halt.

Then some 60% breaker -> 10m halt. (from opening price). Then no ceiling after the 60% movement.

Should be a fun day.

@Market_Nick_ https://t.co/JRGPd8eyep

It's official, Unitree the 8000x+ retail oversubscribed humanoid company in China.

Is expected to go public in 2 days! So the 19th.

Opening is implied to be around ~$41.66B MC per derivatives, around +363.3% above its ~$9B IPO valuation.

Fun times for humanoids this week. https://t.co/yav4oRs2bO

Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players.

Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026."

"Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production.

With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years."

Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...

@PumpCapitalLLC This is the equivalent of a silver 2 league of legends player telling a challenger player that ghost ignite Nunu support is OP.

btw $EWY is primarily memory with Sk Hynix + Samsung.

The exposure you’re getting to MLCC is the size of an ant

@wannabepanacea Yeah as the other comment said $VSH and $KN are the two to look at.

They have a lot less market share than their Asian counterparts, but... they're listed in the US

@HenilPatel20864 Walsin (2494) is top 4 in the world in terms of overall MLCC marketshare (I actually added some recently to track how this guess plays out), with apparently less AI server related compared to Yaiyo Yuden.

~$4.5B MC relative to Yageo, so relatively higher exposure if MLCC supply imbalance broadens.

There's primary Walsin document they state "10% global MLCC share" / "4th or 5th globally"

I think we're seeing AI server MLCC demand cause an interesting effect... with tightening capacity for consumer/general-purpose MLCCs.

If you get Vietnam flashbacks like I do to $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix -> Legacy DRAM:

My thesis is we'll see the same thing here maybe late H2, early 2027 with consumer/broad MLCCs.

From July 6th:

"the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production has begun spilling over into both the automotive and consumer markets."

July 28th:

"AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge"

Aug 12:

As [MLCC] capacity shifts from consumer grades to AI-oriented products... (Trendforce)

Aug 12:

China's electronics market channel checks found 22µF and 47µF MLCCs (used more broadly) out of stock. Then found and said certain manufacturers had stopped taking orders.

(for reference: Walsin said high-volume smartphone/PC products such as... 22µF, so it's broader MLCCs)

Obviously Samsung Electro-Mechanics/Murata are main beneficiaries of AI server MLCC ramp.

But companies with large market share of overall MLCCs like Taiyo Yuden (6976, disclosure: I have positions) with less A

@rektusd101 Everyone was giving me crap over $AXTI being a scam company last year.

So I think it got a lot more attention when it played out.

"Severe InP Shortage Triggers Largest Price Hike Ever" - $AXTI.

Suppliers have bluntly stated that "even if you have the money, you still may not be able to get the material" (lol).

- Industry sources revealed that InP substrate prices began rising in Q4 last year and was the fourth consecutive substrate price hike.

- The latest Q4 hike is expected to be >10%,

- Meanwhile, prices for epitaxial wafers made from those substrates have already been raised two times, and the market is moving toward a 3rd consecutive increase in Q4. (I also wrote a thesis on $IQE, which benefits here too).

Article states VPEC, Landmark, IET benefits (Taiwan centric reporting).

I did predict this last year... The bottleneck is real, but I do have higher expectations for price hikes that comes next.

Glad it's starting to play out.

@MinuteMoola Just a guess, I'm going to watch Stripe create OpenRouter's moat...

By lobbying Congress to make API access across all frontier models require heavy KYC/DD like opening a bank account.

Then require everyone else to get licenses to route inference requests to customers.

With something along the lines of: "We care about user safety. If LLMs can generate nuke guides, bio weps, companies routing inference requests must have guardrails!"

Stripe reportedly buys OpenRouter for $7 Billion.

I think their orchestration is easy to replicate and switch from. And there's very little moat.

But atm, OpenRouter has the userbase, valuable dataset, + momentum.

What's your take... Yay or Nay for the payments firm? https://t.co/AqOlKlwCzc

@Mohsen20Es Also just a disclaimer, this was a paraphrased joke, Elon did not in fact say roger roger.

Exact quote was “If you wanted to do all the things that a human can do, it turns out you need a humanoid robot.”

Regardless excited for what Elon does for the future.

I think @elonmusk said it best:

“Robots don’t all need to be humanoid.

But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built.

Roger, roger.”

Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59

@ram_blings If I mention $SIVE, people say I talk about it too much

If I don't mention $SIVE, people ask why it isn't mentioned

I can't win

@KhalidIshaq85 As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in:

- $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics...

- $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids.

I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process:

-> I know CPO theme is coming next

-> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity.

-> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players.

-> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long.

Can probably do something similar for the other themes.

I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect.

Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming.

But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens?

Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity.

Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management"

1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%.

_

Nvidia in 2026:

Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme.

Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!"

Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027.

I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.

@_stockResearch I also like really like $CCXI. I bought somewhere between .25-.75% of the company's float around the time it got announced.

I think the Unitree IPO and other Chinese IPOs should give it a boost, since Agility has been a relative laggard to their expected open prices... https://t.co/o0GUaQtbh4

@bianokx_momo That’s what my friends like to tell me

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting:

- $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day.

LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030.

- $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029.

For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis

- conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS

read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct.

- Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers.

Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt.

- $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blac

My weekend X feed is getting pretty sad. The main things I've seen were:

- Harvard endowment going degen with $SPCX, and + $AMD, $NVDA disclosing billions

- AI agent microcosm implications on RuneScape

- Hormuz getting renamed to Straight of America

- Jane Street getting wiped $15B by Citadel

- ____ who's hedge fund is up 30% every year buys a .00005% position my favorite stock _____!

- Bunch of noisy motivational quotes or bad takes on trading

@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI blended gross margins goes up when they sell ELSFP and 1.6T optical transceivers.

@logeonli16 It’s fully up to you. But I’m expecting $AAOI to get close or maybe a 20% chance to surpass $LITE in revenue early H1 2028 if AOI fully executes on capacity projections.

Which is pretty interesting when you look at the $12B vs ~$80B valuations (lot of it is better margins for Lumentum)

@Jimbo_Jones_Jr You can look at the YTDs for:

- $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year.

Then let me know if you still think that way.

@alexgoumas I don’t share USD amounts because % is what matters when validating if a thesis is correct.

If someone made $1M off $AAOI going up 1% because they’re wealthy and had a $100M position, that doesn’t mean their long idea is correct.

But I will say it’s bigger than people think.

@halldj00 Some fun statistics:

- Round 69.2% is unrealized. ~2% of the unrealized options, 98% just pure shares.

- Drawndown from peak was ~77.8%, not really any risk if liqudiation at the lows, but recovery was a lot slower

- $EWY longs were up about 450% at the peak, those made up the largest portion of my earlier realized gains, but I still have a sizeable position in that.

说我归零的传闻未免也太夸张了吧 哈哈

经历了7月份AI板块的崩盘后，我的YTD收益依然还有 +2,411.84% https://t.co/m49XcPRgC3

US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips.

$MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this...

Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market".

Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.

@BakshJahed I don't want people to copytrade so I don't really actively share a breakdown.

Rather just post ideas along the way so people can make their own choices.

But I'll share some updates in a bit

@XIAOTU_Li I mean this was like 2 weeks ago for $RDDT, I talk about a lot of equities https://t.co/HwEuKKOiS1

@sellihca_espn My memory bags are decently heavy, thank you for asking.

Just out of curiosity, you think 16+ long term agreements with $MU.

And $SNDK 80% gross margin projections through fiscal 2030 is a cyclical commodity? (their LTAs already cover majority of 2028 output).

This is quite a long cycle if you ask me...

The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D

Donald Trump signs a proclamation to strengthen US supply chains for drones.

Benefiting U.S. drone component suppliers like $UMAC to UAS manufacturers like $ONDS + $RCAT.

TLDR, 100% tariffs on:

- UAS docking stations + certain critical components

- certain parts for >25 kg drones

- Drones >25 kg

25% tariffs on:

- broader components

UAS = Unmanned Aircraft System (don't have any positions in any above)

@demarscrypto $RDDT S&P 500 inclusion go brrr

Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter.

- "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes.

At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028.

- "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month.

TLDR:

- SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027

- Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028

Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent.

Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.

@Highonstocks_ Yeah I personally bought $SMCI on earnings day after I saw the guidance.

At a certain point, hairdryers should only weigh down a stock so much right?

In another world, $SMCI would look more like $DELL?

If they didn't try smuggling $NVDA GPUs using hairdryers...

Regardless, SMCI guiding $65-72B FY 2027 revenue off a ~$25B MC is pretty crazy the more I look at it. https://t.co/FUZIojiMcc

@Papsytwinz Uhh nothing really too interesting aside from a new $2.3M purchase order for $POET

Will need to wait for earnings call.

In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation.

If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs.

Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT.

Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign.

On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top.

Enterprise is probably having a better time though.

Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors.

Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month.

Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.

@blkslymn I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA).

And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity...

That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency...

CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.

@dra99aso I usually just post research along the way as new news comes out (eg. Lumilens $5.5B valuation announcement + hyperscaler contracts).

But I'll drop it in disclosures if I have a position on something like $POET or $SMCI earlier. Maybe I'll do a roundup TLDR later.

@SammmXBT If I had to categorize it:

$SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion

Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027?

$AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution

Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections?

$POET = Waiting for Customers

Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.

Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions.

- I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point:

They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now.

And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more.

So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk.

- Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp.

Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling.

But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements.

The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet.

And given the current bottleneck, p

Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both)

So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates:

Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it.

Since then:

- $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive)

- $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers.

- Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap"

- IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract.

The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly).

There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important.

But basically:

FY2025 revenue: £97.3m

FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m

They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of b

@dankdrankkz Sivers found a small Series B company that raised $3m last year that achieved 200-250mw per emitter apparently.

$SIVE can maybe combine that with their high wavelength DFB array, and maybe make something extremely high power like eg. 8/16 × 200-250mw for high aggregate output.

Program was focused on "need for higher power, more wavelengths" for CPO, so that's my guess.

@JoelLikesTurtle That's literally the earliest timeframe possible for CPO scale up early volumes if you look at $LITE and $COHR earnings.

And giving that specific timeframe is actually extremely bullish.