大V信息速递

Just some words of emotional support for your SK Hynix, $SNDK, $MU fanclub.

$DELL CEO on memory, suggested: "It's a 4 year problem because there's just not enough supply"

Factories take about 4 years to build, meaning new production would emerge 2029 or 2030.

and that semiconductor shortages could worsen in 2027 stating:

"I do think it gets worse next year in terms of demand and supply".

I think it's strange we're getting unprecedented forward visibility with memory... as $GOOGL and richest hyperscalers seek LTAs into 2035.

And a major sector crash as well over durability/financing concerns.

好吧，这视频也太酷了吧...

$TSLA 现在居然都有飞行汽车了，感觉我们真的活在未来了 https://t.co/WjY9tP9JIF

Glad we finally got a word too from $NVDA Jensen Huang today from an event at Stockholm...

About $CRWV amid the broader Neocloud selloff.

When asked about the markets reactions to Coreweave, Jensen responded:

- "Coreweave's strength is improving every day, I'm optimistic"

- "The cost of capital is actually decreasing"

On whether Nvidia needed to provide a financial backstop:

- Jensen said he did not see a need for Nvidia to backstop CoreWeave

I'm personally not too positive about $CRWV relative to $NBIS and the others... but any copium helps from the man himself with market sentiment.

@EscapeTheLab I mean it's probably more important to look at the actions over words... I'm sure $GOOGL trying to secure supply until 2035, would spark other hyperscalers to follow suit as well.

They probably wouldn't be going 9 years out if they thought there would be overflooding in supply from China in 2 years.

@ishrak_khair Nobody said $SIVE was going to be the sole laser provider for Ayar for all generations. 2nd gen Supernova was 16x wavelength that they confirmed Sivers.

Ayar is expected to do multi-vendor for lasers, would be stupid not to. Originally disclosed suppliers were $LITE, $MTSI, and $SIVE, but there's probably only a few companies that can do this new design.

For their new demonstration at OCP it's 8x 200mW range, $LITE is probably the closest one technologically to Ayar's OCP announcement, with 8x 250 mW demonstrated at ECOC just last month that they're targeting availability later in 2027.

I don't see anything where $MTSI has demonstrated remotely similar capabilities yet. Macom were saying they were still working on 75 mW qualifications targeting production H2 2027.

$SIVE has lower power 8/16 channel specs, and individual 200 mW lasers for NPO. I think this might relate to their Seminex partnership for UHP multi channel variants that they were targeting for 2027 so high confidence they'll meet technology specs eventually, more of a matter of timing.

But basically new announced configuration from Ayar, can't really make any assumptions here yet, will need to wait for ear

@BullishWiener I'm happy $GOOGL is being more aggressive with supply procurement like $NVDA was.

They've been way too complacent and let others bottleneck their own supply chain.

CSPs and hyperscalers will be in a rude awakening if they're hoping for Chinese memory to save them.

$GOOGL is now discussing deals to extend their memory LTAs through 2035 from KeyBanc channel checks.

Samsung already has 70% of their capacity allocated through 2031, and this move would suggest a more durable cycle for $MU, $SKHY, and the others.

They also expect HBM prices up 80% to 100% in the Q1 2027.

Having all your capacity potentially allocated out into 2035 via LTAs would ease a lot of memory durability fears.

$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic.

For analyst Q&A rounds:

Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity

A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components.

Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029.

This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff.

Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility)

A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial.

It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand.

Q: On pricing power:

A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight.

(Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press)

Regarding earnings

@HenilPatel20864 Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting.

There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations).

Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities.

If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand.

The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement).

With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments.

I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue.

Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently.

With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside...

Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations...

The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes down together.

There's merit to a lot of things (I've been voicing Coreweave concerns about debt interest + rate hikes for the longest time...).

But much like high end memory flooding to nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when the $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints... were missed.

You can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows

@lyAtomic Okay just a clarification, this post was more about CPO but wrote it too quickly... don't want to imply everything as a whole like cables/pluggables.

The question was whether microled + multimode fiber architectures proposed by AUO and others could break into CPO:

The response regarding microled architecture skepticism for CPO is actually a lot more supportive for CW lasers.

I assumed VCSEL when I made this post, but they share the multimode fiber approach Largan's chairman is criticizing so it's probably less so.

"However, CEO Lin En-ping poured cold water on the widely discussed approach of pairing MicroLEDs with multimode optical fiber, stating bluntly that he personally believes the MicroLED approach is “unlikely” to materialize.

He added that no customers currently genuinely consider the architecture commercially viable."

Wow, Largan Chairman dropped a nuke and stated MicroLEDs unlikely to become viable for AI DC buildouts

As for what's up and coming... Feels like $AMD, $NVDA, and everyone in the industry is clearly going out of their way to procure CW laser supply this year.

EML was the market's focus last year with $LITE / $COHR (and still partially is).

But future architectures with microleds was something to keep watch for 2028 onwards...

Since $CRDO was pretty focused on it with their acqusition of Hyperlume, $AMS Osram was a popular name (working with Credo too), hyperscalers like $MSFT were developing in the space too.

Largan is also a $TSM COUPE supply chain player that does FAU like Foci/microlens/passive components, so they're more impartial.

But yeah... was a surprise to see Largan Chairman citing concerns over "power consumption, size, and transmission efficiency" for microled commercialization and said it's unlikely to become viable. (source: Digitimes)

TLDR:

-> MicroLED as a technology unlikely to become viable from Largan Chairman

-> If it turns out correct, indirectly positive for lasers like VCSEL, then CW/SiPH since there's some overlap for CPO scale up applications

Guess like we found out why Elon has been going on a crusade against memory in his recent posts.

$SKHY and Samsung have been price hiking memory too much? https://t.co/r3sTYkd7TX

@AllTheWayRay8 I have positions in Agility! I do want to see US humanoid programs succeed, even if they’re behind Unitree and others now.

So I have a personal preference in funding US players over foreign programs.

But $NVDA and $AMZN are heavily backing Agility so that’s always positive

$AGLT (Agility Robotics) has cleared SEC review for public listing through $CCXI

If you want an estimate timeline:

~Oct 13 (today): SEC S-4 declared effective

~Nov 2nd (shareholder vote): for merger approval

~November: Merger closing and ticker goes live for trading.

Company’s official statement was:

“The business combination remains subject to approval by Churchill XI shareholders and other customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in November 2026.”

So likely less than a month away for the first pure play US humanoid company to go live!

@MarginCallMick Elon has a pretty remarkable track record of identifying and leading commercialization of major shifts like EVs to reusable rockets (and now humanoids).

I would agree he's often a bit overly ambitious on timelines...

But if you've ever watched Star Wars or sci fi movies... I do think humanoids are coming and at a massive scale to replace human labor, since economic incentives are enormous

@BullishWiener I'm just tracking technological inflection points, not making an argument for stock prices right now like $CCXI (Agility).

But if people are long term investors in humanoids + their supply chains like actuators, feels more like a matter of when.

Since mass commercialization seems inevitable if humanoids are able to do 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environments... for such a cheap cost

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI.

$NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up.

New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that:

- In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment"

- Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years"

- He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands.

- "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence"

- "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6"

Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20".

But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there.

But going from

@SidkMena Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of memory capacity spanning until 2031.

$LITE is completely sold out into 2029 and with customers starting to lock in orders for 2030.

There's the actual demand. Then there's short term media narratives that cause people to sell.

There's been many scares over the past few years over $NVDA GPUs from Deepseek to macro but in the end fundamentals matter more.

@Mahesh2115 Transcript response: Investors who sell on a single short term OpenAI ARR datapoint are no different from gambling money in a casino

Western Media framing: AI investors are gamblers.

So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material:

- "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand."

- "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ)

- "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong.

He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal):

- Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times)

And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino.

- Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying:

"It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic

@firstadopter Bloomberg is garbage.

@Nesquickie89 Yeah just read a bit more into it... Special thanks to *Bloomberg* for adding fuel to the fire.

You can't hate mainstream media enough wow.

"Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company [OpenAI] because its underlying fundamentals were strong.

Investors selling based on a single short-term data point were essentially no different from people gambling in a casino."

He was pushing back against negative interpretations of OpenAI's revenue... but somehow Bloomberg spun that as a hit piece on AI investing?

I'm impressed

Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this.

Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire…

Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI. https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s

@wnwls1598 What oversupply? Even in the lower end ranges that they're focusing on, Chinese pluggable makers like Innolight are still bottlenecked for 70-100mW ranges from ECOC channel checks.

Cambridge wouldn't be going out financing suppliers with convertible loans for scarce laser capacity.

Suppliers wouldn't be raising ASPs if there was overcapacity. Also not all CW lasers are the same. China is a ways away from from scaling UHP lasers needed for CPO, which is why there's still premiums given to $LITE, $COHR, $SIVE.

$LITE lasers are sold out into 2029 and they're starting negotiations into 2030.

I don't think anyone genuinely believes that China will flood the laser markets medium term, even both $LITE / $AAOI CEO said there was a difference between comments made and what they're actually seeing.

From AOI on China: "of them, they are working maybe 70 mW or very few can really do 100 mW. For 300 mW laser, especially DWDM spec, we don't see that."

"Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AOI, Lumentum, Coherent, Broadcom all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years"

From Lumentum last month: "A

Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic.

On Memory:

- Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031.

Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd.

There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030.

You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players.

But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline.

Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices.

But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suf

@SiversSemicond Good news, communication to western audiences needs to be a lot better.

@StanleyShih8 I think almost everything about my $AXTI thesis from 2025 was validated?

From AXT's position in the InP substrate bottleneck... Being able to threaten the hyperscaler buildout (per Reuters)...

$IQE has been flagging this as a major risk, VPEC and Taiwan epiwafer foundries have been crying over InP substrate bottlenecks.

And there's even AXT direct confirmation of partnerships with $LITE and $COHR as the InP substrate supplier. AXT also stated $130m/quarter InP revenue capacity exiting 2027 (~$520m annualized) so that's a massive revenue inflection compared to previously.

Now... the biggest question is: How much can AXT price hike?

The substrates they make are just such a tiny part of the BOM... but can threaten hyperscaler buildouts with optics.

So if they manage to price hike to $SNDK NAND degrees (which they can), then I think AXT could get re-rated a ton from here. But if they end up like Japanese ABF suppliers that are less willing to abuse their position, that's a different story.

Will need to do more channel checks to see how that's coming along.

But at the very least, I would argue there should be some valuation baseline just due to their critical importance (e

@Rian_2026 Good question! Just some informal thoughts... there's three "moats" to look at for $SIVE:

- Capacity

- Qualifications (especially for custom DFB lasers)

- Technological

1. For capacity, they're coming online with 100M+ CW DFB lasers Q4 2027 (global supply is roughly ~608M EML/CW lasers currently per Trendforce).

Obviously by 2027 global capacity is going to grow a lot, with $AAOI, $AVGO (3x expansion), and others coming online.

But if you extrapolate their 2:1 statement, that implies 300m lasers/year long term coming from their own supply + external foundries.

This is incredibly valuable during a shortage that was quoted to be 3-5 years, and $LITE stating they already have demand visibility into 2031...

And when suppliers have started to qualify many more (eg. 5-7 vendors vs. 2-3 earlier) due to bottlenecks.

I'm sure a lot of how they achieve that staggering amount is due to their manufacturing process/yields (which is a moat).

2. For qualifications, if you look at 70mW/100mW pluggable lines with Chinese players, I'd argue this is more generic and moreso reverting back to a capacity argument and manufacturing process to achieve those numbers.

Custom DFB arrays that they'

@HimarsoClock Someone did ask “How is Serenity” this time around! So I’m happy.

I’m just personally excited about $LITE selling out into 2029 and implications for optical peers like $AAOI.

Not advice, but I personally think markets haven’t fully caught onto the scale of AOI’s ramp in 2027 + current bottleneck severity. It’s one of my largest positions right now for a reason!

Also I’m looking forward to touching grass over the weekend. Apparently there was an OCP San Jose event…

Maybe I’ll drop by if there’s a Kiss of Life group like at ICML.

Looks like one of you posted on $RDDT WSB… with a $1M $AAOI position.

I’m laughing at the comments, even more amusing when my name pops up

Might still be early if people think there’s “no moat” in lasers and that AOI makes no money. (wait and see Q2 2027) https://t.co/vG6Zl4LZHf

@wosa42 Markets often miss second order implications until it shows up in direct statements.

- If $LITE is completely sold out... (largely due to $NVDA bottlenecking everyone else, eg. securing Greensboro capacity), where else do your other companies like $AMD / hyperscalers / etc. get their supply procurement?

- $SIVE is coming online with like 1/6th of the world's current laser capacity by themselves. (100M+ cw dfb lasers vs. 608M EML/CW globally per Trendforce).

Not even including their partner foundries that they're targeting 2:1 for.

- $AAOI is coming online with a ton of capacity too next year enough to produce 400k ELSFP + $471m/month of transceivers.

Then combine that with other supply chain statements like "Having 2-3 suppliers used to be the norm, now it is 5-7" from Lightcounting.

So as long as your products actually work + can scale, it's hard to see anyone else with capacity not get qualified into your supply chains.

Since optical component shortages are a massive bottleneck now.

Woooow... $LITE CEO went out on Bloomberg today and stated:

Lumentum is "effectively sold out through nearly 2029".

From our perspective, "Completely Sold Out, there's no end in sight". With demand visibility from hyperscalers that carries them out into 2030, 2031.

The implications of these statements are enormous for photonics and remaining laser suppliers with capacity coming online like $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, to $AAOI.

What a crazy bottleneck that's unfolding.

@ps_georg Hyperscalers are the ones ultimately funding the AI buildout. As seen with $AMZN to $GOOGL earnings commentary, the ROI is seen as wildly attractive.

Even $MSFT said they’d be FCF positive during the buildout period.

I was more worried about counterparty risk until OpenAI went out and raised like $168B recently.

@matttfoster Real bubble is in VC land with private companies like Instinct… $10B valuations off 100k users while $SNAP is worth less with close to 1 Billion MAU.

Supply chain stocks aren’t a bubble though, if anything names like $AAOI and others are very undervalued relative to forward growth.

And you have demand visibility from hyperscalers extending multiple years…

Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR…

(vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic)

Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU?

Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G

@UjenA93UTP63896 $CCXI looks like it's going public Q4 2026. And my hope is that it sort of looks like $OKLO if they generate enough excitement.

Watched the investor presentation the other day, just waiting for the public listing anytime soon (I personally added some the other day).

Big fan of humanoids, pretty confident physical AI shift is coming next.

I'm personally not looking too much about the price action while it's in its filing phase, fun usually begins after ticker change. We'll see what happens

@marexis8 @InvestCuffs I can’t tell if this was a real presentation or if the photo was AI anymore

@Blinklebloop I think we’ll go back to regularly scheduled programming now

It’s just that ATM was holding $AAOI back for the longest time https://t.co/udXpmERWpw

$AAOI is... finally... done...

With their $600m ATM program, turns out it's ~$105.36 average.

I do think AOI outperforms $LITE, as long as they stop filing these ATM programs.

Just due to their sheer magnitude of ramp with $471m/month transceiver revenue + 400K/month ELSFP coming up.

$LITE CEO: "Next year with the advent of CPO and NPO in 2027, our estimates are that we'll be undershipping demand...

By 70%. Literally 70%. So we can only supply 30%.

And this has caught us by supply. By 2029-2030, we get to some level of balance."

Source: Global Photonics Economic Forum Day 1 (7:57:15 - 7:58:00)

Any other players with laser capacity coming online are probably going to get more market attention soon.

@meidaoge Agility Robotics hasn’t gone public yet, I’m just waiting for listing announcement this quarter for $CCXI

@KrinschTM Process of elimination from disclosures from 2024 releases. https://t.co/tOCy9xmF0B

"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE.

Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials:

- Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone)

- Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS)

- Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level

- Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transceiver market share.

- Analysts don't expect this to bottleneck hyperscaler AI buildouts, they name InP substrate supply as the key variable to watch (hello $AXTI )

TLDR:

Component suppliers in general are really positive. Like $SMTC probably winner here for TIAs/drivers (I don't think this was listed), maybe $MXL for DSPs too.

$AAOI another large beneficiary.

$SIVE is high-key alpha for laser beneficaries since they have "tremendous capacity" coming online, and that points to US foundries (they haven't formally disclosed location).

Since previous sli

@TomSzczypka I'm super glad to hear that and happy your family is doing great!

Would love a tour around Toronto. I go there every now and then for one of the music festivals there.

@beauty_oe 今ちょっと風邪がひどいんだけど、無理せずゆっくりしてるよ。ここのみんなからたくさん応援してもらえて、本当に嬉しい。ありがとう！

$GOOGL Gemini 4 Argon benchmarks got released.

Against GPT-6 Astra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 / Opus 5.5.

Still coughing nonstop, so will comment on $MU / $JBL earnings later.

I've always thought Google's internal models were stellar, but anecdotally, they seem to get hard nerfed shortly after public release... Maybe because of compute constraints?

But yeah, looks like Google is back.

@DavidJang0620 I actually thought $JBL earnings were great.

But usually if you disagree with how markets reacted, that just means there's a buying opportunity.

@jamesplash666 I'm feeling worse off than yesterday. I'm having fun with the new US Gov LLM though https://t.co/QjbldKrgIk

Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns...

Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in:

- $AAOI

- Alchip

- $MRVL (Celestial)

- $ALAB

- $CRDO

- $JBL

- $FLEX

- $STM

- $CBRS

- $GNRC

- $FN

- TD SYNNEX

- $QCOM

- Gold Circuit Electronics

And others..

If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs...

Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies.

Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.

@Itachidata I've had better days, having constant headaches which is a bit rough. I did have some fun channel checks though recently.

Some guy I met by the bathroom yesterday claimed to be $SPCX Cursor CEO. I'm not good with faces so idk if he was lying or not.

Also had some discussions about beamformer technology with an industry executive, it's apparently more important than I gave it credit for.

Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking...

"How is Serenity"?

I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break.

I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way back when, so maybe I should have invested in private companies at the time...

Apart from that... other interesting news:

- Some channel checks from ECOC was that $NVDA apparently secured 50% of $LITE Greensboro UHP laser capacity? And possibly contracts that allow them to secure the remaining capacity per Barclays.

That's $5B in lasers (annual capacity)... so it's hilarious to see Nvidia go out and bottleneck the rest of the industry by doing this. But this just puts more strategic value on other merchant laser suppliers + more visibility for Lumentum.

It's kinda game theory over allocation, since if you secure all the HBM, lasers, and others it inadvertently makes it much harder for competitors to scale their programs.

- Then there's your massive $150B Nvidia authorized buybacks (just look at $AAPL when they did buybacks..) They're printing too much.

- What's also interesting is that Samsung

People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years.

Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year.

Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago.

The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.

@shanhai188 我刚看了一下旧金山的人口, 感觉已经是个很大的城市了, 结果整个城市也才82万人...

然后再看看我自己的粉丝数, 居然有100万. 说实话, 这个数字真的让我在情绪上有点承受不过来.

@JHBECCALEE Tell them I said hi!

我突然意识到, 原来我有这么多粉丝.

第一次从第三方的视角看了一下自己的主页…感觉好像还有点吓人?

如果我们办一场派对, 而且所有人都来了, 那应该不是塞满一个小房间的问题, 而是能塞满一整座城市吧?

总之, 中秋节快乐！

@KhalidIshaq85 Okay thing about it for a second:

$AKAM gets a big deal over 7 years. But in order to actually execute on the deal:

They gotta buy a ton of CPUs and memory… So these upstream component supply chains are probably the larger beneficiaries over the ones in the headline.

But can’t give advice in terms of buying something

@blkslymn Nope for $AKAM. But if you look at what’s needed probably CPUs/Memory #1.

So your $ARM / $INTC / $AMD thematically (AMD probably higher beta to this company in specific). Then your Samsung / $MU / SK Hynix are your obvious memory beneficiaries.

Component procurement is done through $JBL, which potentially benefits their own supply chain if they’re doing networking too.

$AKAM signs $11.6B compute deal with Anthropic for accelerated CPU workloads demands over 7 years.

$AMD to $MU should be happy to hear this…

Akamai ests. ~$5.5B of capex to service the $11.6B commitment. Including +$1.7B of 2026 capex specifically to pre-purchase supply chain components like memory.

So much for Anthropic/OpenAI calling for an AI slowdown?

If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle:

Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters

- "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain ​oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices."

- "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.”

Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…

@ANoelGC I mean $LITE / $COHR did have $NVDA funding $2B for their buildout.

But Lumentum seems primarily self-funded from operating cash flow. So I'd expect $AAOI to follow suit once they start ramp up around H1 2027.

2026 is just that high capex buildout period. My criticism was over visibility and financing methods during this timeframe.

@piyush1337 It's very frustrating since... what if the $600m August ATM finishes, then they file another $600M ATM in October?

I'm happy to support financing for their buildout, but there's 0 clarity to the end of the ATM loop or how much funding they actually need.

If they just said "we need $3.5B", mixes LTAs, private placements, ATMs to get this done, there wouldn't be as much confusion.

I'm super excited operationally, but how they do financing is very concerning.

$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August.

It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout.

Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout.

Or convertible notes at 40% premiums.

It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs).

I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a year. And I'll say the same thing with my own thesis names too.

I see $AAOI operationally very bullish for 2027, with $471m/month transceiver revenue. 400k ELSFP units/month entering 2028.

The revenue ramp is absurd and can compress to single digit forward P/E.

But I find it hard to get excited over funding infinite ATMs during the buildout, when you're sacrificing opportunity cost with names currently profitable like $SNDK or Samsung.

I think a lot of retail investors conflate stock performance with how a company is doing operationally.

$AA

@fichgarciapinto I would have a much more favorable view on $IREN after they finish their $6B ATM in terms of stock performance (I think they're like 41.5% through).

I think Mirantis acqusition would materially shift a lot of perception of how they rank relative to $CRWV, $NBIS, Lambda, Tensorwave, and others in terms of cluster performance once they finish integration.

I've always started software side of things is actually a moat (backing up what Coreweave CEO was saying), which was what $IREN lacked before.

But M&A to get that gap fixed is probably the most bullish part of what they've done.

@tradesidious @kkkkk61216936 I still have $CCXI, they haven't even had the listing event yet, so volatility up until then is kinda meaningless to me.

@qwertyuipasd11 @FransBakker9812 Good times, I've made amends with $IREN though https://t.co/zdJmHgXLfx

@kkkkk61216936 I cut my positions here

https://t.co/XJBWaBQQmQ

Wow $NBIS relative outperformance is wild.

Back in 2025 I wrote my Neocloud thesis on $IREN to $CRWV. But I made the decision months later to consolidate it all into Nebius...

Despite the the hate from FinX back then.

Very interesting to see Nebius up 6% even during sector drop…

After Oracle was reportedly seeking payment protection if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening.

With Oracle:

"seeking to protect itself from potential cost increases related to a large DC ​project in New Mexico by sending a force majeure notice" per Reuters.

Lot of new people like to piggyback after it’s up a lot, but there was a lot less people bullish back in 2025.

Especially during the period with a ton of institutional short sellers back in December.

I still think markets might be underestimating sum of parts growth, even if its core business grows like crazy 2027+ onwards.

@troyluhman @elonmusk @ellev3n11 Makes sense that all the best engineers have anime PFPs

@degenlurker_ It’s mainly thesis tracking mode now since I layed out most of my ideas H1 from $INTC, $ARM to $MU. Or $SIVE to $AAOI or $AXTI or $NBIS

Only two recent ones were $ESMT for legacy memory trade and $CCXI for humanoids but aside from that it’s just seeing if they get validated over time

Stuff like large body substrates or CXL or MLCC with newer discovery, I’ve already published earlier on

@Jess252530 They’re too small, so I don’t want to talk about this basket in specific publicly.

I do share my research process and the themes I’m looking at, though. So I’m sure others can find similar ideas.

I’ve actually entered positions in many tiny Korean companies recently…

That actively supply memory, test, machines, etc. to $MU, $SKHY, Samsung, and others like $SMTC + US companies.

It’s pretty interesting what you find in the $30-$250m range for optical components, CPUs, memory, and others that are inflecting due to AI.

I don’t share these names publicly since risks/volatility is enormous.

But one or two going from $40M -> $400m makes the risk/reward worth it for me personally.

@genZinvest0r @s0Xu8sC2tpvpPba Yep, looks like Samsung Electro-Mechanics https://t.co/h03NIqKDMk

@s0Xu8sC2tpvpPba Yep, just saw the news on $LPK! I'll do some digging to see if I can find out who it is https://t.co/nCet0CotMD

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry:

Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated:

- $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially.

- NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products)

- Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply

Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply).

Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers.

- "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028.

- Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers.

- Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work)

So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing"

TLDR:

- NPO > CPO

@ardninja Memory LTAs span until 2031. $AVGO expects 100% supply constrained growth Y/Y for next 2 years.

$NVDA expects 70% supply constrained growth next year (implying year after that demand keeps up).

$SIVE CEO said there's a massive demand supply imbalance for lasers for at least the next 3-5 years.

I think semi supply chain growth needs to be re-accessed year by year, but at least for the next year and half I see unprecedented growth.

@AI_Supercycle01 No, hard to justify $2T valuation. I'd rather do OpenAI at $1.2T.

All your Chinese AI labs like DeepSeek or Minimax or Zhipu are much more reasonably valued.

Elon Musk: "AI will beat [humans] in all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest."

Kind of maps to Anthropic's economic implications paper where 2026-2028 was the buildout.

Then 2028-2030 was unprecedented economic growth.

So we're still early H2 2026. https://t.co/LpGJkHcgn2

@Gubloinvestor Why thank you https://t.co/Yn2Lvqrxtw

@BCorr_AI Gonna be hard to call things SI instead of AI. https://t.co/hC1Hb4dWP4

I guess I need to start calling $SNDK or $LITE Super Intelligence stocks.

Thanks Trump. https://t.co/x7tJcKjfsc

I feel like traditional "value investing" went into hibernation.

Before it was finding a 10x -12x P/E company like $UPWK or $PYPL, Dominoes, Pepsi. Or even a cheap Japanese company below book value.

Then just enjoying slow growth but buyback/dividend appreciation from their cashflow.

Now you can find 1.8x runrate P/E company like $ESMT that grew revenue 605.24% Y/Y.

And the main thing you need to argue about is duration.

Or a 16.2x trailing P/E Sumitomo, despite having way too many hyperscaler LTAs in AI from fiber to lasers.

AI created much bigger medium-term anomaly, where "value investing" went towards high growth, "deep value" companies.

Wow Bitcoin + Ethereum pulled pretty extreme recoveries.

Looks like $HOOD / $COIN / Crypto is back?

On-chain equities trading + regulator exemptions probably put a lot of fuel into the fire for the sector.

That aside... crypto is usually a great indicator for high-beta AI equities believe it or not (they tend to frontrun broader market drops or rallies).

So overall market risk appetite might be coming back despite the rate hikes.

All right $META Muse is cooking.

I can hear all the $AMD, $INTC, and $ARM CPUs vrrrring in the background.

Along with the memory + components (NICs, SSDs, DRAM) needed for all the browsers/VMs

When I ask it to do a bunch of long form tasks…

Intel CEO also said recently that CPU demand is so strong they can only support 50% of what customers need, so there’s some signals there.

I’m also curious how much $AMZN or $NBIS is involved with running Muse, or if Meta hosts everything inhouse.

Kinda an ADHD post but Meta beat my expectations with this release.

Will keep trying it out

We’re in the modern agricultural revolution.

In terms of civilization-level impact of AI.

So… not sure how anyone can be bearish so early on into the singularity and before mass deployment of physical AI. https://t.co/uJAXpZm4MP

@mengxiong715781 ridiculous report. The way $NBIS does financing is much more sustainable than $CRWV and other neoclouds.

There were also claims about falling GPU pricing but Nebius hiked rates by like 17-21% (oracle also hiked pricing for 4+ year equipment).

Sum of parts is also something many analysis miss, Clickhouse would likely drive a lot of value to nebius. As well as Avride (with Uber) + their other companies.

@Frenchie_ AMS Osram is not a current bottleneck, but likely a future one. Microleds will have its time to shine in 2028.

@TradingTh3Trend Glad $AXTI also went up +12.4% today. It's probably being used like a chess piece in terms of Xi + Trump discussions right now.

Since InP substrates would bottleneck the optical buildout by the US for AI.

But if they have more control over pricing... I do think there's a lot of room for rerating.

@wannabepanacea $SIVE and $AAOI, yes for a 2027 timeframe. That's the nuance.

Sivers you're coming on with 100M CW DFB laser capacity + 2 external foundries (maybe 300M in total), and all my supply chains mapping maps to larger hyperscaler suppliers.

AAOI you're coming on with $471m transceiver revenue + 400K ELS units for 2028 timeframe. With hyperscalers + demand eating up all their capacity. There's just a $600m ATM which presents overhang near term.

$NBIS already got re-rated but it's very positive upcoming for Q4 2026 (esp. with price hikes).

Legacy memory like $ESMT + (some I haven't named yet) + regular memory names like Samsung, I do think will strongly outperform near term. And obviously CPUs names like $INTC $AMD $ARM as of recent.

@gurkyboy $SOI is the perfect example of a complete monopoly over silicon photonics. (lot of folks float 95% figures like UBS or Shin Etsu that Soitec basically licenses), but practically speaking...

It's kinda 100% since it's used to manufacture all SOI Wafers, people just don't like to use the word monopoly in markets.

Depends on all their LTAs that they're going to sign as well as pricing. I would appreciate it if they abused their position to secure higher pricing.

We'll see on the scale of their agreements if it deserves to be ATHs again

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time:

$AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33%

CPUs go brrr

$SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61%

Lasers go brrr

$EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23%

Memory go brrr

$NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73%

Compute go brrr

Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases).

As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others)

Still a lot to catch up on.

@DanilSer33 I personally think $ESMT should be a lot higher since July net income was absurd (~$111M, August.

And I did track their products, which has high sensitivity to hikes... (which are heavily expected H2)

Markets aren't always efficient, and maybe just needs a reminder after Q3 earnings.

The main duo $SKHY and Samsung are having a fun day.

I'm still long memory (eg. $EWY / $DRAM ) since if capacity agreements extend 3-5 years... and your analysts model 2.8-3.3x 2027E. Risk/reward is attractive over time.

But I think legacy memory a very interesting trade currently due to ASP hike potential..

It also just so happens these same companies procure memory from even smaller memory companies (that might have higher sensitivity)...

So if you want to, you can track $PSMC wafer allocations, and find some interesting companies that likely replace $MU discontinued legacy memory through Alliance or supply directly to Samsung.

Won't mention them on X, but just throwing out some research ideas.

@Quez_Fame @reynosismo_ U literally are the AI I’m talking about

@Pau1R0b $RDDT will probably get more accounts + revenue from AI bots that act like human so I’d guess earnings beat.

Changing public opinion with AI is really bad for democracy and long term platform health though.

@cchronobreakk I mean Sam Altman was working on iris scan with his World project, so he probably saw it coming.

But human verification is probably needed across the board now for each account.

$RDDT doesn’t require much so platforms like that are first to be manipulated.

The internet is now cooked soon?

With $RDDT to other social media like X more at risk due to AI.

You can have new decision models like Jev making autonomous computer interaction at near $0 cost. (With actions becoming more human-like/adapative)

Then LLMs outputs influencing behavior or leading conversations.

So at scale, a malicious actor can spawn 50,000,000 bots just roaming the internet, with LLM prompts convincing people + manufacturing public opinion.

The main bottleneck would be phone number, IP, account age, maybe hardware for compute + device identifiers (which is extremely cheap still)… rather than LLM cost.

I’ve already anecdotally seen short sellers use AI bots to spread negative misinformation about companies like $SIVE.

Or bots market ____ account as the best one to follow in the comments.

Or as seen with X uncovering 200+ bots manipulating debate about datacenter public opinion.

But the scale might be exponentially worse soon.

Scary to think about.

Jev potential implications + applications are actually insane to think about

Does anyone have experience using open source decision model variants yet?

@Temptemo95 Thanks for following all this time! Entire training arc from $RDDT to 1M followers on X has been quite a rollercoaster.

Guess like I need to start drawing anime and league characters on top of the $INTC or $NBIS charts again.

@Trader827063 I read like 95% of comments!

I just try not to reply as much since I don’t want a bunch of these short replies (where people don’t learn something new) to fill news feeds.

While everyone is focused on Bessent/He Lifeng talks today. Or $LITE / $MRVL / $SIVE at ECOC optical conference...

I'm just curious why my followers can leave 2K+ comments if I post in Chinese...

But if I share something in English: I only get 50 comments.

Feels bad anon

@Jky_yyy I mean… X is and will always be my main platform.

I just think it would be fun to interact with local fans, even for a short time.

Getting way too many comment recommendations!

我有点想在中国的社交平台上开个账号玩玩

就玩一小段时间，跟用不了 X 的粉丝们互动一下

大家推荐去哪个平台发帖？

Just floating out an idea to $AVGO:

If you lock up $SIVE laser supply for next few years since you need “more laser capacity”.

You could unintentionally cause bottlenecks across your main ASIC competitors:

Like $MRVL (Celestial), AlChip, Mediatek, GUC (Ayar CPO), first gen deployments.

Where many also seem to be aligned with your best friend $NVDA…

Maybe it’s worth discussing spending spare change to lock up the remaining merchant laser supply?

Apparently, we just took over Greenland?

Exciting news on a Friday…

So on optical vs. photonics... Memory like $MU / $SKHY is in it's current supercycle.

-> RBC channel checks for example projects 80-100% HBM ASP hikes for 2027.

-> Per $NVDA ER, Hyperscaler capex goes up in 2027. Then you have 68% of hyperscaler capex per Trendforce going to DRAM/NAND.

-> 50-70% for next 3-5 years already allocated toward LTAs.

So supercycle is here... demand visibility is high and the price hikes are still ongoing.

As photonics like $SMTC to $AAOI, I expect to cook heavily in 2027 since we're already seeing widespread optical shortages in 2026.

Plus, you're going from $67.7B in 2026 (per GS) to $131.4B TAM in 2027 for optical modules...

Which impacts the DSPs/TIAs/lasers/fiber suppliers before CPO scale up really takes off in 2028.

I don't think we'll ever see the same scale of memory price hikes, but I do think there's a lot room for more for MC growth in optical supply chains (given smaller starting point eg. $1B CW laser supplier vs $1T memory maker).

But still there's room for price hikes on laser content (eg. $15–$20 for 4 70 mW lasers per GS note) since starting point is really cheap... and one component, like cheap InP substrates can break hundreds of billi

TLDRs of things I found interesting this week:

- $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027.

$SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara)

- $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements."

I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE.

- $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029.

The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth.

- Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion.

Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation.

- Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly.

I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically i

@DanilSer33 Legacy Memory prices are rising more than the Shield Hero https://t.co/HOhY6jM5XL

Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory...

Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes.

Price hikes projections expected for H2:

- SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1

- High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1

- ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3

- DDR2: +35-40% in Q3

- LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3

- DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising

As a consolidated view...

Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026.

Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes (eg. +45% DRAM wafers from $PSMC)

So I'd expect Q3 earnings for a lot of the legacy memory fabless companies to cook

@StephanTeo39458 I think $IQE, VPEC and your recent epiwafer foundry type company commentary was very strategically bullish on $AXTI.

This Foxconn note wasn’t clear on InP substrates.

The main thing going forward is if AXT is able to pull off $SNDK style price hikes given their market share

@stockprodigyman I mean I saw the 25bps hike, but I’m not a macro expert to the point I understand all the nuances

Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR:

Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages.

Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics.

Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commentary.

Almost like a certain Anime character on X was right about CW laser bottlenecks.

@ptcalad https://t.co/n1wSG4ULSY

@two3pro Trendforce also has a standalone piece for $SIVE capacity projections https://t.co/9SD8tUN87h

$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden.

I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage.

BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp.

But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally.

I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody believed the link until there was an actual press release.

Anyway, proud to see this little company growing up

Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow.

50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million.

They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g

@FabioCHZ I also would cheer on a futuristic redesign.

I think it’s more of a Waymo “friendly companion” type vibe focused on B2B commercialization rather than exciting retail. https://t.co/xCyPhzdeW3

@blkslymn I’m a fan of $CCXI since they’re targeting commercialization first with companies like $AMZN to $MELI.

I think they could get a higher valuation from retail it looked like the terminator and can backflip.

$CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid.

Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5

哇,中国的 AI 视频生成能力可能已经是世界第一了吧？字节跳动的 Seedance 也太强了, 强到让我开始担心…

日本的动画师会不会很快就被 AI 取代？

但想象一下你可以随时生成新的剧情,让故事一直延续下去, 想看多久就看多久

这还挺酷的

Some color on current memory environments for the $MU / $SKHY bros:

"There is zero risk of memory prices dropping" per Team Group GM Gerry Chen.

- Memory module makers have received notices warning of drastic cuts to their 2027 supply allocations. Some could receive 50% or less of their 2026 allocation.

- Upstream manufacturers have reportedly sold out nearly all of their 2027–2028 capacity.

- DDR5 supply, in particular, is projected to come in at less than 80% of previous expectations.

- Chen expects prices to continue rising 20–30% quarter-over-quarter into 2027 (source Digitimes)

- Chen's commentary on $MU is that even before their new MegaFab capacity comes online Q4 2027 at the earliest, orders for 2028 through 2029 are already fully booked.

So that there's virtually no relief in sight to current shortages.

Sharply lower allocations, fully booked capacity into 2029, and future price hikes doesn't quite sound like the AI buildout is slowing down.

@peperifle my opinion is that cybersecurity is probably one of the most overvalued themes in the market.

I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls.

As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy".

I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals.

But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy".

And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on.

With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections.

-> Samsung LTAs to 2031 (70% capacity) for durability... -> Minimum price floor + no price ceiling type contracts from SK Hynix.

-> Memory shortage much tigher for the next year.

-> DRAM/NAND % of hyperscaler capex goes higher (est. 68% per Trendforce)

-> 2027 hyperscaler capex projections all hiked.

Then with $SNDK, 50% FCF margins, 80% gross margin projections into 2030.

Only Situational Awareness position I'm in disagreement with is $CRWV due to debt interest eating FCF, but I can make a similar bullish argument with $BE, $INTC, $AMD, and others.

Not quite sure about

@Retardlnvestor I now own 2 whole shares of $IREN https://t.co/2yoQguFhCl

$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown:

“Even if models never improved from here…

just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years”

I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare.

Guess what happened?

These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout.

Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.

@KhalidIshaq85 I mean $ESMT just did ~$111m net income of the month of July off a $2.5B MC.

And it looks like their core product prices are going to get hiked a lot H2 from new Trendforce data.

The selloff looks ridiculous to me, but feel free to make your own decision on this.

NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2.

I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT*

For H1 hikes:

NOR: +100–120%

SLC NAND: +130–150%

For H2 hikes:

High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2

SLC NAND: ~70–75%.

Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb)

The moderate bearish part is:

“For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online.

Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate”

However, this update is overwhelmingly bullish for earnings of legacy memory players.

Let the ASP hike games continue.

Man Ray: are you long Samsung?

Patrick: Yup.

Man Ray: Samsung has memory LTAs extending to 2031?

Patrick: Yup.

Man Ray: And it’s trading at ~2.8× 2027E P/E?

Patrick: Yup.

Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung?

Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% drop because X said memory will crash from AI slowdown

Be Anthropic:

Call for: “limiting the ingredients that go into frontier models, such as training compute”

> secure $517 Billion in compute deals over last 11 months

Proclaim: “We have tried to prioritize caution over speed and prudence over profit.”

> actively speedrun NASDAQ IPO in October while others like OpenAI delayed theirs to 2027

Suggest: “employee-like access to a team of embedded third-party evaluators” for regulatory oversight of frontier labs

> after becoming one of the two leaders…

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way.

And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition.

1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab.

-> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI.

-> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition.

Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself

2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown).

It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability.

Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons"

3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given.

It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes:

-> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China.

If they wanted to slow down, they

Tech people in real life: I have shares in “ $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SPCX. “

People on my X feed/comments:

- Leveraged Micron, Sk Hynix calls all the way from $1M to $28M down to $4M

- calls on short dated tanker freight futures because $AXTI 3000% 1Y returns wasn’t enough.

- Long $PLTR short $LULU because inverse Burry indicators

- Long Swedish high beta CW laser suppliers for CPO because it reminds them of $NVDA bottlenecking EML

- “AI is going to end human civilization” so this is a signal for longer AI capex duration + trade wars so long $EQR cause tungsten.

Gap between finance X and normal finance/tech people is also insane.

I can’t help but feel proud that I’m partly to blame.

@x4tsr Not gonna happen. I see this as more regulatory capture, there’s no way Anthropic/OpenAI would slow down to let others catch up.

Or have US to slow down and allow China to secretly leapfrog in AI capability.

It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings.

Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since:

Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts.

Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older…

So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis.

And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.

@iyoumem I’m sorry to hear about this. This came across my feed randomly.

If the family would like, I’m happy to cover all the remaining costs directly. Please reach out privately.

I think there’s a gap to fill…

Since I believe retail deserves the same research and early thematic ideas that institutions access first.

I feel like everyone understandably gravitates institutional as they grow.

But helping retail has always been my priority. And that hasn’t changed even as I grew to 1M followers.

I’m excited to see what we can cook up together soon chat.

@Itachidata I mean… short dated tanker freight futures outperformed $AXTI and all my ideas.

So my main takeaway is that there’s always more obscure things I can learn

What's the next $BWET if you guys have ideas?

Need more weird ideas like short dated tanker freight future ETFs...

I didn't know this existed until last week. https://t.co/kguL6svZNj

@thiagoTF Hope I can teach them how to meme too https://t.co/41haD06LNM

Apparently my "bottleneck thesis" has made it into a quant fund research pipeline?

Hope the institutions enjoy reading my takes on DDR2, CW lasers, and InP substrates...

Didn't expect to end up in the same paragraph as Trump on a Friday. https://t.co/j5leamPwJV

Looks like Situational Awareness is back:

Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM.

And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK.

Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high. https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO

@haydeninvestsX That’s just an example of short sellers using tens of accounts from old crypto marketing campaigns.

To spread disinformation about a company.

Different than farming engagement https://t.co/FO7znmjabY

@jukan05 Hope @michaelo can look into this more.

It’s getting a little ridiculous to see so many affiliated engagement networks showing up on finance/market timelines.

@Path21Mil Nolimit is apparently a 1.5M account that inflated engagement to sell courses according to Zach.

Polymarket Money/Japan/others are examples of paying for engagement to build networks.

There’s many others, that just flood my feed now.

But 2 different types of inauthentic engagement types.

X should go out and ban every network ring that pays others to quote/comment on their posts.

If you want to see how it’s done:

> companies pay influencers to comment/quote their posts (now sometimes with labels)

> they spawn new accounts like ___ “finance” or ___ “ ”with a new affiliated account

> when each company gets big enough they just interact with one another eg. quote posts to boost engagement.

By the end each affiliate account ends up with tens/hundreds of thousands of followers.

And they use it to boost their other account visibility.

My worry is that X is just going to end up dominated by engagement networks marketing company products.

Instead of having independent authentic voices.

@TakinTrades Of course! All it takes is a surprise announcement like “Sivers powers Innolight” like they did with $JBL or $GFS.

Since we narrowed down the pluggable players working with Sivers to China as a geography from channel checks + potentially larger scale.

Could be anytime or never, who knows.

Haha I feel bad for the guy at the $SIVE booth.

Genuinely thanks everyone for helping crowd source channel checks, really appreciate it!

Think the most interesting update overall from Innolight channel checks was explicit confirmation that lasers across 70mW-200mW power range have seen ASP going up.

Sivers also disclosed they raised prices.

That should support gross margin expansion for laser suppliers in future quarters as higher pricing flows through.

@PhotonCap Memory is a lot simpler since they're already in a supercycle, and we have LTA + capex visibility on a lot of the companies.

I treat photonics as the next memory supercycle for 2027-2028, and it's earlier on.

But seeing all the shortages with CW/EML even before the major ramp makes me more excited.

There's a lot more alpha to be discovered in terms of determining what companies are higher beta to CPO/NPO, etc. such as Foci for FAUs/ Sivers for CW DFBs given not as much economic participation in previous cycles like pluggables for 800G.

@gadgilanurag Not telling you to buy, my argument is 25-50 bps can compress forward multiples.

But unless it causes hyperscaler cuts, it's not going to break the AI capex cycle (especially when there's LTAs signed + Gov is coming into fund the buildout).

When your trillions of dollars flows into sectors like photonics/memory.

I expect companies high beta to each sector would outperform macro in the medium term, especially when the capex hits their balance sheet.

@Allstarsv16 who do you think posted the original thesis on $IQE

https://t.co/4pb3DcDWku

Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro.

- $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations)

- $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027.

- $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ).

- Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack.

What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest?

Photonics + Memory.

Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027.

So when all that memory procurement spend hits the balance sheets of $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, $SKHY with 70-80%+ margins.

I don't think these companies care about short term macro scares.

And when your leading memory companies are all allocating capacity for DDR5/HBM or high end memory, with little visibility on legacy memory supply coming online.

What does that say about the durability of ESMT/Etron/Winbond and others?

And when your optical content/GPU goes up for rubin ultra + $META / $GOOGL TPU v9, etc. Alongside TAM eg. $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 optical module forecasts.

@00000sol0 Even my 2 rr p/e Taiwan stock got surprisingly sold off today. I think that fundamentals over medium term overwhelm the impact of potential 25 or 50 bps hikes.

It’s just short term nobody cares, which is what I’m joking about https://t.co/g6tzRPQcgv

It's a macro market right now https://t.co/12ySQqZWrO

共和党が議会で多数派を維持できたら、トランプが成人1人につき5,000ドルを配ると約束している理由が、正直よく分からない。（総額約1.35兆ドル）

それより、アメリカ中のトイレを、日本にあるような便座が温かくなるTOTO（5332.T）のトイレにアップグレードしたほうが、支持率はもっと上がるんじゃないかと思う。

計算してみた：

3億3,500万台のトイレをTOTO UltraMax II + S7Aに交換すると、約9,900億ドル。

設置費用まで含めると、総額は約1.3兆ドル。

僕の案のほうがかなり安い。

@zsummer931 There’s a $600m ATM which presents near term structural overhang (usually a month or so) of selling pressure.

$AAOI inflection point should be somewhere near the end of Q2 2027.

So still quite a lot of time to go.

Wow, HBM reportedly drove up AI accelerator/card prices by 20-50% in China.

So $SKHY, Samsung, $MU, should be happy to hear this:

- Huawei has raised indicated pricing for the Ascend 950DT 20–50% above quotes from just 2 months ago

- Cambricon's upcoming 690 is reportedly +20–30%

Reuters stated that HBM acquired through grey market channels in China can cost several times regular pricing.

As someone who is long memory, I'm happy about memory causing this much inflation.

Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read:

1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030

So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI.

2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027.

Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030.

So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration.

Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028)

3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment

"At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI."

GG computer science majors.

4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario.

So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...)

Whereas -11.5% for know

@TimDraper Sorry to hear that. Coming from a stranger on X, I hope you can find some comfort in knowing that his life lives on through everyone he shared his time and ideas with.

"We are made of memories and formed by experience" is a quote I’ve always liked.

If you hid the ticker, you would think this was an AI bottleneck name. https://t.co/6rR1BWYRb9

@SVdegenxyz The stories coming out are sad to see. https://t.co/A4sR0aNSyI

I’m not surprised $LAPTOP is down -96.16% after launch.

I frown on these types of events that are not positive sum for retail. https://t.co/YbrzeOQpuT

Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."

I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.

And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.

Just for reference:

For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones.

For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme

With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets."

We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings.

So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026.

Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...

$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象 https://t.co/mhV2qUSSM3

Demand for Astra is unprecedented to the point OpenAI might pause new Pro subscriptions.

If you want a translation:

AI buildout + compute go brrr.

Special thank you to awodias for the crowdsourced channel check all the way from CIOE 2026 Shenzhen!

- Confirmed that $SIVE is actively engaged with Chinese pluggable makers

- $SIVE has raised lasers prices given tight supply

- 70mW lasers seem the most tight given association with 800g pluggables

It’s pretty cool that our little community reaches all the way around the world.

(Also thank you if other people did channel checks and I missed it, this was the first one I saw)

How https://t.co/pkCKZ7zIrK

Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to:

- $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026

- $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027

- $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028

For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU:

1.6T: 0 -> 2

3.2T: 3 -> 5

GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated.

So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.

@penghu_psp bro I didn't spend all my time to find DDR2 ESMT prices and map it to random cameras out on the market

for u to tell me phison is better without ur reasoning

Okay I know this is US time and this is a Taiwan stock...

But I really am starting to think $ESMT (3006) can cook like $SNDK. And I’m excited.

So hopefully in a few months, people can something say similar...

FUN FACT CHAT:

Did you know.. 1 old DDR2 memory chip is.. ~$0.96? (from LCSC data)

Obviously different per spec since some can be $2.5...

But if you 3x ASP Hike this.

That's a whole... ~$2 added to final BOM cost.

So about the same cost as a $COST hot dog.

It goes into things like a D-Link security camera, maybe like $33 final cost...

and adds like $2. (which people won't mind)

But... 3X ASP hike to ESMT? Is very, very material.

That's just for one product category, and there's many others from SLC NAND (eg. +120–170% H2) to NOR Flash products for H2 ASP hike projections.

And my favorite thing is, they've already shown they're willing to partake in the price hike games (seems like there's a long way to go)…

Currently they make ~$111M net income a month from July earnings ($2.8B MC), which annualized is like ~2.1X P/E. *I have positions.

So... I think $ESMT has room to cook like masterchef Sandisk.

TLDR:

- Repeated rounds of price hiking = seems absurd for the company's net inc

Wait… this was real? I thought this was The Onion type meme.

Honestly would be more bullish on $META if they admitted they trained on thousands of adult films… instead of claiming “personal use”.

What could Zuckerberg be cooking? https://t.co/JXtt3P6BbS

@OInvests My 1 $IREN share is also cooking today. https://t.co/vOItCaeY5p

$NBIS is back, and coming in hot with a new partnership with $PLTR.

Palantir also named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.

The implications are potentially significant considering Palantir’s existing relations with the US Gov + Enterprises. https://t.co/izCDuR4r6Q

$AMZN signs a new deal with $QCOM, giving Amazon the right to buy a ~$4B stake of Qualcomm through warrants.

At this rate.. Amazon will be more of a semi ETF than $NVDA?

Given their existing equity/warrants with AlChip, $MRVL, $ALAB, $AAOI, and others.

This of course is linked with up to $60B in milestone revenue from Amazon/Qualcomm custom silicon partnership.

Good for both companies, moreso Qualcomm.

@tcuso14 I still hold the same opinion that $HOOD should prioritize international equities and helping retail compound net worth through portfolio diversification.

Instead of maximizing monetization through prediction markets where retail has lost a ton on aggregate. https://t.co/3xXV8F5qqH

Wow, $HOOD has taken minority ownership in Crypto‌.com.

It does feel like the future of the finance industry is slowly consolidating around Stripe/Robinhood.

Especially after the successful expansion of Robinhood Chain, Prediction Markets, and Credit Cards/Banking. https://t.co/FXZTmVaIo5

If you want to save 3 minutes reading through the drama, here’s a TLDR:

- 2 smart dudes (from NYU / Anthropic) work on some problem for a year with codex/claude.

- OpenAI learns about their work

- OpenAI reportedly uses their private Codex sessions to solve famous proof

- when asked about it, OpenAI gives legal “there is no war in ba sing se” type answer

- OpenAI gives the guy a proposal, kick off guy #2 from Anthropic and say OpenAI resolved it

- or let OpenAI take credit (a day later) after the duo posts their results first

- Guy says no and that he’d go public with it. OpenAI reportedly says “why would you ruin your career”

So $INTC is raising PC CPU prices by 10% apparently in October per Digitimes, which I think markets might appreciate.

The legacy memory trade also just going brrr from August revenues:

-> ESMT revenue up ~+605% Y/Y, 16.4% M/M

Which is interesting given gross margins also rising tremendously too.

-> Etron revenue up +525% Y/Y, +6.4% M/M

Chairman says he sees growth momentum in memory to extend through 2028 or longer, potentially 2030. (which is very positive read through for ESMT given what Etron sells) *own ESMT/Etron

-> Winbond revenue up +289.43% Y/Y, up 2% M/M

Their president says memory supply and demand are expected to be even tighter in 2027 than in 2026.

-> Macronix revenue up +218.5% Y/Y, +5.4% M/M

Says SLC NAND, eMMC, NOR remain tight (kinda known there).

So... if you think your 80%-100% type revenue growth players are insane.

Check out legacy memory (operating income is even more hilarious). There's a few more where ~ modeled forward P/E values of like 2-3 from my estimates.

I personally find the theme a better value investing type idea than your 16 P/E no-growth dividend companies.

@wannabepanacea Yes, 300m laser capacity H2 2028 seems like a realistic target for $SIVE.

It looks really large relative to global 2026 supply but if you factor if you factor in 100M+ CW DFB coming from Glasgow alone.

And expansion of all the other foundries, it looks reasonable.

They also might have 1 other foundry they might not have mentioned yet (we'll see). Since they've only made announcements for 2 of the 3 external partners they talked about a few years ago.

@twisterchessur I use CIG for read through on Western markets, since they disclosed 5 CW laser supply agreements. But I remember likely $MSFT and $CSCO were optical customers.

Some of the more interesting companies were Nanjing Casela / 南京镭芯光电 (private) and Suzhou Dingxin / 苏州鼎芯光电 (private, but has a public parent via Yongding) for their potential CW laser sources.

But even after that, their filings showed they plan to stockpile CW lasers for next few years to avoid future bottlenecks.

I don't know enough about Cambridge fundamentals to comment on how well they might perform in the future.

@awodias Thank you! I'll turn my direct messages on for everyone in case people get some interesting responses.

(haven't been reading them for past few months cause too many, sorry).

Glad $SIVE is attending CIOE Shenzen and hope my followers can go too!

If you want my read on current landscape:

-> Chinese pluggable makers like CIG (剑桥科技) are facing severe shortages in 70mW-200mW lasers.

If you look at filings from CIG, they claim "substantially longer delivery times and deposits to secure capacity” along with statements of shortages.

-> Innolight and others were also looking to secure multiple laser suppliers with LTAs recently from their filings.

On the US side of things:

-> $COHR was a major merchant laser supplier before, but largely withdrew from the market after rerouting them internally.

"I do not see any time in the near future where we would be selling Indium Phosphide lasers externally." From their ER transcript.

And then likely turned into a buyer in an already supply constrained market... where

"over the long term, we will have some portion of our datacom transceivers that will be supported by external sources."

-> $AAOI not really known to be a merchant supplier, but said same thing about laser capacity being rerouted towards transceivers. And having to turn away customers for lasers.

-> For $LITE, they still supply lasers but stated: "We are comman

I don’t think I want to be in this timeline anymore.

We got AGI with Astra and Hunter Biden $LAPTOP in the same weekend.

@IkaKnight_ Buffett: Here's why Pepsi is compelling at 16 P/E and why we need to save up $300B+ for the next market correction.

Abel: We're gonna full send it into AI's next bottleneck

Uhh chat, did we accidentally AI bottleneck-pill Warren Buffett's $BRK.B successor Greg Abel? https://t.co/FnHS87s6XN

@KhalidIshaq85 Congrats, yeah anything $TSM affiliated has been on a tear recently.

I don't have any personal targets for $IQE, just seeing what happens.

I think my earlier thesis around latent capacity refactored toward AI DC segments, for Landmark-type rerating was validated with their statement today at least:

"The main investment really is mainly the downtime of the tool, because you actually take it off of production for a time, and that obviously is opportunity costs that are lost. I think it’s still a worthwhile investment. Even with that minimal investment, we are still not converting tools without customer commitments and secured demand on these tools."

But we'll see what happens since their main concern was resolving InP substrate constraints.

@AheadOfTmrw These "no growth meme stock" posts about $AXTI did not age well. https://t.co/MP2VKSwRay

New report from Bloomberg on $IQE:

“indium phosphide substrates is emerging as a key risk for the semiconductor industry.”

I wonder who could have guessed this last year with $AXTI? https://t.co/ETW7Y2Pz7z

@Yangyftz Of course, but it's just really exciting to think about these ideas sometimes.

I forgot to add in $AAOI as another example. Even though they do end-to-end pluggables, they're even potentially vertically integrating upstream too.

Think last ER they mentioned JVs with InP substrate makers... So reminds me of $COHR in a little way.

I'll let you decide that for yourself since that was an illustrative laser revenue modeling off $SIVE 100M CW DFB laser/year target.

But... do you want to know the main reason I like laser companies so much?

They don't just have to stay laser companies... just look at $LITE!

If we look at Lumentum's previous Cloud Light acqusition (pluggables)... it enabled:

- more than a 5X+ expansion in served opportunity inside DCs.

From Lumentum's OFC deck:

- ELS expansion from UHP laser chips was 2X TAM opportunity..

But selling lasers alone... just from one UHP laser fab was $5B in projected revenue capacity (their fab expected to ramp in early 2028), if we apply similar 55-65% CPO laser margin quotes by $AAOI.

So lasers by itself is very profitable, and despite industry capacity expansion, there would likely still be a demand imbalance for lasers.

Isn't that pretty cool?

So it's not quite just modeling component value for certain types of companies since they can keep growing into other products.

And you have new overlapping cycles eg. NPO/CPO/1.6T pluggables increasing demand.

So I'd personally assign higher premiums for laser companies over types of suppliers that stay in the same layer.

Is there any other industry... Where every investor is cheering for shortages and price hikes?

SED reported today that: Samsung / $SKHY "stockpiles have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage could emerge next year, according to a new forecast"

KB Securities said that the memory market next year will see "the tightest supply conditions in history"

KB Securities projects memory's share of AI infrastructure costs to expand from 40% this year to 57% next year, with others like TrendForce placing next year's figure at 68% (total hyperscaler capex, pretty wild forecast attached)

"Both stocks have fallen 38% from their peaks over the past three months, pushing their price-to-earnings ratios based on next year's expected results down to about three times."

Likewise, commentary around Phison stated they expect extremely tight NAND supply in 2027, so hard to see memory flooding the market or prices collapsing next year...

They gave some color that "soaring NAND prices have forced some Chinese consumer module makers to liquidate inventory, giving Phison opportunities to buy lower-priced stock", so it does show some price declines can coexist with broader shortages.

TLDR

Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown:

1. $AXTI - InP substrates

2. $NBIS - Neoclouds

3. $MU - Memory

4. $INTC - Foundry

5. $LITE - Photonics

6. $IQE - Epiwafers

7. $AAOI - Photonics

8. $GDRZF - Venezuela

9. $AEHR - Machines

10. $EWY (volatility + underlying)

11. $RPI - AI orchestration

12. $SOI - SIlicon Photonics Substrates

13. $SNDK - Memory

14. $SIMO - Memory

15. $MRVL - ASICs

16. Nanya - memory

17. Unimicron - substrates

18. $ARM - CPUs

19. $SIVE - Photonics

From H1 2026, around 19 names across several themes up 100%+ still from the selection of winners.

Since many like $TSEM / $HPS.A / $LPK / $ALRIB fell out of the range. (obviously not all are green like Shunsin / $XFAB and disappointed by performance).

Regardless, glad a lot of my ideas turned out decently, rather than just being known for one like $AXTI. To the point the Chinese community gave my investing style a name "Perilla Leaf Theory".

Again not too sure if my new ideas replicate this performance again in H2 2026 or 2027...

For H2, my new thesis was on $CCXI for humanoids/downstream physical AI shift and ESMT for DDR2/DDR3/legacy memory.

But I'll keep

@BlockBeatsAsia Cheers! Appreciate the coverage and hope more folks go your way to read market updates.

@FilipMitras I get like 100 of these types of questions a day, I can’t just answer all of them.

Since you’ve asked 12 times: yes I still have exposure to all of them.

Cost averaged on a few, so as of today positions on:

Foci are up 53%

Xintec are up 53.1%

But still down -23% on Shunsin, -22% on Msscorp.

Main position I trimmed the most at a loss for tax harvesting was Auros after hybrid bonding industry delays.

I like to post thesis ideas, but try to keep portfolio management stuff private like tax loss harvesting or trimming.

I’ll post thesis research updates, like $TSM coupe confirming partnership with Shunsin. Or FAU bottleneck validation on Foci. Or hybrid bonding delays.

But in the end people should make their own decisions

@AllTheWayRay8 We just got AGI with Astra, so don’t quite think the AI burst is “ubiquitous and inevitable.”

Capex doesn’t seem to be slowing down, since there’s visibility into 2029-2031 with many semi companies now.

The segments at risk are probably the ones with leverage/financing risk, such as neoclouds or frontier labs with too many obligations.

Not the semi firms at 3-15 forward p/e who are raking in too much operating income a quarter.

Oh cool! $SIVE also made it there on cnyes too (leading Taiwan financial media)!

The English translation might be off a bit, but this was summarizing Sivers surprising 100M+ CW DFB annual laser capacity expansion, ~ operational Q4 2027.

And how given historical ASP from previous year presentation slides, it could translate to $625M-$1.25B capacity revenue ceiling at full utilization.

Sivers might be of more interest given its partnerships with local foundries like Win Semi.

And since its downstream partners like Ayar (Mediatek / Alchip CPO partner) are heavily investing in Taiwanese optical supply chains.

I didn’t know my ESMT thesis was making some rounds in Taiwanese media like Cnyes/Anue.

Just found it funny that I wanted to read about any recent commentary, then my name kept appearing…

Special thanks to BlockBeats for the original coverage. https://t.co/nS0lBHJmgH

@JensenHuang @ChaseLochmiller @OpenAI Wow, OpenAi’s Astra achieving AGI carries a lot more weight coming from the CEO of $NVDA.

I asked OpenAI Astra Ultra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 Max to make me a 5x-10x return type portfolio in 1 year.

Burnt a lot of credits, and the results are in:

OpenAI: - $KYTX (autoimmune CAR-T results)

- $PRQR (human RNA-editing datasets)

- $VSTM (KRAS cancer-drug)

- $CNTB (asthma and COPD)

- $RANI (oral biologics)

- $IVA (MASH)

- $SILC (networking + inference hardware)

- $AMPX (batteries)

- $EOSE (batteries)

- $ZVRA (rare-disease drug growth)

Anthropic: - $INO (respiratory papillomatosis)

- $CAPR (PDUFA for deramiocel)

- $GOSS (seralutinib)

- $SLS (Phase 3 binary)

- $IREN (familiar face)

- $WULF (familiar face)

- $OKLO (nuclear)

- $SMR (nuclear)

- $RGTI (quantum)

- $QBTS (quantum)

*Disclosure don't own any of these aside from 1 share in IREN, not a recommendation, just TLDR of LLM output for educational purposes.

So very interesting results:

Our beloved AGI Astra prefers really obscure biotech I've never heard about. And a few familiar names like $EOSE and $AMPX.

And Fable... yeah idk, feels like it learned a little too much from /r/wallstreetbets and X but maybe it's right, who knows.

Anyway no judgement, I'll save this and revisit it in a few months. If one of them actually delivers.

I’m not sure how OpenAI was likely holding off their IPO to 2027.

Because they had concerns about a $1T valuation 3 months ago.

Then Anthropic investors go and say **** it, lets one-up $SPCX and IPO at $2T next month? https://t.co/wkMuzkCrzd

Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery.

Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed!

Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others.

But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does.

I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect:

- There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end.

- $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising.

- $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100)

- and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung

Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods.

But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements.

Same concept can be applied to other sectors.

我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三.

或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股.

很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！